FC Cincinnati vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: FC Cincinnati 2-1 DC United.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% FC Cincinnati, 22% draw, 27% DC United — fair odds of 1.96, 4.55 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Cincinnati at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Cincinnati vs DC United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 24K. SmithD
- 4N. HagglundD
- 15T. HadebeD
- 23D. DouděraM
- 20P. BuchaM
- 5O. NwobodoM
- 3T. MalaciaM
- 10EvanderM
- 16T. BarlowF
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 99A. JabbariF
- 22G. ValenzuelaM
- 13E. LouroG
- 17K. Mboma DemF
- 2A. PowellD
- 11S. GidiM
- 27B. AnungaM
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónD
- 88A. ChirilaD
- 26A. BonoG
- 5S. HeftiD
- 3L. BartlettD
- 15K. RowlesD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 2K. NonoM
- 21A. DozzellM
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 7PeglowM
- 9T. BariboF
- 25J. HopkinsF
- 13S. NealisD
- 8J. StroudM
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 22N. OrdazF
- 24J. FarrG
- 40K. CastilloM
- 32O. AvilezF
- 12C. AntleyD
Form going into FC Cincinnati vs DC United
FC Cincinnati
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Columbus Crew18 October 2026
- L2-3New England Revolution14 October 2026
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
DC United
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Orlando City SC17 October 2026
- W2-1New York Red Bulls14 October 2026
- L0-4away to Inter Miami10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- DC United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for DC United had three goals or more.
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 67 | 75 | -8 | 46 |
| 14 | DC United | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs DC United
- 31 May 2025FC Cincinnati 1–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025DC United 0–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 3 July 2024DC United 2–3 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 10 March 2024FC Cincinnati 0–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 24 June 2023DC United 3–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 6 May 2023FC Cincinnati 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and DC United
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey173
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Cincinnati beat DC United 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FC Cincinnati at 51%. The goals: David Douděra 14' for FC Cincinnati, Kimito Nono 38' for DC United, Teenage Hadebe 55' for FC Cincinnati. On expected goals it finished 1.85–0.97.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cincinnati a 48.1% chance to finish in the top nine: 63.8% after a win, 34.0% after a draw, 24.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.8%, 15.7 points higher than before the match.
For DC United the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 47.9% going in: 23.4% after a win, 43.2% after a draw, 60.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.4%, 12.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Cincinnati v DC United has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 51% / 22% / 27%: the biggest move is FC Cincinnati's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- FC Cincinnati win51%▲ +9
- Draw22%▼ −5
- DC United win27%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.