31 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bologna vs Monza Serie A prediction & result

Bologna
Referee: Andrea Zanotti
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Bologna 2-1 Monza.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Bologna, 24% draw, 26% Monza — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Bologna at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bologna96%Draw4%Monza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Gustavo Varela (pen)
12'
Ricardo Mangas
Jens Odgaard
17'
Tommaso Pobega
23'
⚽Tommaso Pobegaassist: Juan Miranda
33'
45'
🔁Exequiel Zeballosout: Jay Robinson
•Arthur Theate
56'
58'
Lorenzo Lucchesi
⚽Federico Bernardeschi (pen)
59'
🔁Jens Odgaardout: Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda
64'
66'
🔁Leonardo Colomboout: Mathis Mout
66'
🔁Eddy Kouadioout: Idrissa Toure
71'
🔁Dany Motaout: Cyril Ngonge
71'
🔁Gustavo Varelaout: Patrick Cutrone
Nadir Zortea
74'
🔁Tommaso Pobegaout: Oussama El Azzouzi
74'
🔁Martin Vitikout: Matteo Darmian
75'
76'
Idrissa Toure
77'
•Jay Robinson
81'
⚽Patrick Cutrone (pen)
🔁Nadir Zorteaout: Mikel Jesús Amondarain
83'
🔁Federico Bernardeschiout: Artem Dovbyk
83'
Mikel Jesús Amondarain
90'

Match stats — Bologna vs Monza

60%Possession40%
10Shots6
5On target4
5Corners2
2.1xG1.84

Goals against chances

Bologna2 from 2.10 xGabout what the chances were worth
Monza1 from 1.84 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bologna 3-4-2-1
  • 1Ł. SkorupskiG
  • 41M. VitíkD
  • 16N. CasaleD
  • 3A. TheateD
  • 20N. ZorteaM
  • 19L. FergusonM
  • 4T. PobegaM
  • 33Juan MirandaM
  • 10F. BernardeschiM
  • 28N. CambiaghiM
  • 21J. OdgaardF
Substitutes
  • 25M. PessinaG
  • 7R. OrsoliniF
  • 6N. MoroM
  • 11S. MbangulaF
  • 18M. LibraM
  • 14T. HeggemD
  • 72U. HapponenG
  • 5E. HellandD
  • 17O. El AzzouziM
Coach: Raffaele Palladino
Monza 3-4-2-1
  • 1N. TörnqvistG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 2S. GoglichidzeD
  • 3L. LucchesiD
  • 19S. BirindelliM
  • 8M. OndoaM
  • 21L. ColomboM
  • 7Ricardo MangasM
  • 47Dany MotaM
  • 22E. ZeballosM
  • 9Gustavo VarelaF
Substitutes
  • 24A. BakouneD
  • 27I. TouréM
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 26P. CiurriaF
  • 28A. ColpaniM
  • 10P. CutroneF
  • 11O. ForsonF
  • 80M. MoutM
  • 16C. NgongeF
Coach: I. Juric

Form going into Bologna vs Monza

Bologna

Serie A

  • W4-2away to AC Milan28 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Cagliari24 October 2026
  • L1-3Inter17 October 2026

Monza

Serie A

  • L1-4Napoli28 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Torino23 October 2026
  • W4-0Cagliari19 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Bologna115241614+217
18Monza112181725-87

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bologna vs Monza

Bologna and Monza have met 7 times in the records we hold, Bologna has won 4 of them to Monza's 1, with 2 drawn.

The record

Bologna won the last one 2–1 on 31 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Bologna421114
Monza124411

Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 Oct 2026
    Serie A    Bologna 2–1 Monza
  • 18 Jan 2025
    Serie A    Bologna 3–1 Monza
  • 3 Dec 2024
    Coppa Italia    Bologna 4–0 Monza
  • 22 Sep 2024
    Serie A    Monza 1–2 Bologna
  • 13 Apr 2024
    Serie A    Bologna 0–0 Monza
  • 28 Sep 2023
    Serie A    Monza 0–0 Bologna
  • 12 Feb 2023
    Serie A    Bologna 0–1 Monza

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Bologna concede 35% fewer than Monza. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Bologna1.030.89
Monza1.051.36

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Bologna and Monza

Bologna

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Monza

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Varela91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bologna beat Monza 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bologna at 50%. The goals: Gustavo Varela (penalty) 6' for Monza, Tommaso Pobega 33' for Bologna, Federico Bernardeschi (penalty) 59' for Bologna. On expected goals it finished 2.10–1.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Monza a 37.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.6% after a win, 36.9% after a draw, 40.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.1%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bologna v Monza has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 50% / 24% / 26%: the biggest move is Bologna's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Bologna win50%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Monza win26%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.