17 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz Bundesliga prediction & result

Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau
Referee: Emil Ristoskov
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Austria Lustenau 0-4 Lask Linz.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Austria Lustenau, 22% draw, 55% Lask Linz — fair odds of 4.35, 4.55 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lask Linz at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austria Lustenau0%Draw1%Lask Linz99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Danilo Soares
16'
56'
⚽Sasa Kalajdzicassist: Melayro Bogarde
57'
Florian Flecker
64'
⚽Samuel Adeniranassist: Sasa Kalajdzic
65'
🔁Melayro Bogardeout: Andres Andrade
65'
🔁Florian Fleckerout: Kasper Jorgensen
65'
🔁João Victor Tornichout: Xavier Mbuyamba
🔁Alieu Conatehout: Albin Gashi
67'
🔁Matthias Maakout: Seydou Diarra
68'
76'
🔁Samuel Adeniranout: Christoph Lang
🔁Antonio Verinacout: Precious Benjamin
77'
🔁Niklas Pertlwieserout: Emmanuel Chukwu
77'
84'
🔁Sasa Kalajdzicout: Naël Mamadou Lamine Kane
88'
⚽Christoph Lang (pen)
🔁Lord Afrifaout: Pius Grabher
89'
90+4'
⚽Christoph Langassist: Robert Ljubicic

Match stats — Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz

40%Possession60%
6Shots23
1On target10
4Corners12
0.35xG3.39

Goals against chances

Austria Lustenau0 from 0.35 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lask Linz4 from 3.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Austria Lustenau 5-4-1
  • 27D. SchierlG
  • 21AnilsonD
  • 18R. VoisineD
  • 31M. MaakD
  • 29N. PertlwieserD
  • 3Danilo SoaresD
  • 11D. WeixelbraunM
  • 20L. AfrifaM
  • 8D. KacuriM
  • 10Alieu ConatehM
  • 39A. VerinacF
Substitutes
  • 14P. BenjaminF
  • 30P. BöhmG
  • 15E. ChukwuD
  • 24S. DiarraF
  • 17A. GashiF
  • 7F. GmeinerD
  • 23P. GrabherM
  • 26L. IbertsbergerD
  • 9L. JastremskiF
Coach: M. Mader
Lask Linz 3-4-1-2
  • 1L. JungwirthG
  • 23Daniel ElfadliD
  • 43AlemãoD
  • 3M. FreckletonD
  • 29F. FleckerM
  • 6M. BogardeM
  • 30S. HorvathM
  • 25Y. DibangoM
  • 10R. LjubičićM
  • 11S. KalajdzicF
  • 7S. AdeniranF
Substitutes
  • 33T. SchützenauerG
  • 18A. SchöpfM
  • 20K. JørgensenD
  • 4X. MbuyambaD
  • 27C. LangM
  • 45N. KaneF
  • 9K. DaněkM
  • 16A. AndradeD
  • 21M. VerhaegheD
Coach: D. Kühbauer

Form going into Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz

Austria Lustenau

Bundesliga

  • L3-4away to TSV Hartberg11 October 2026

Lask Linz

Bundesliga

  • L0-2Rapid Vienna11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Austria Lustenau123271530-1511
3Lask Linz128133015+1525

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz

  • 9 December 2023Austria Lustenau 1–3 Lask LinzBundesliga
  • 3 September 2023Lask Linz 2–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 24 February 2023Lask Linz 1–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 11 September 2022Austria Lustenau 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
  • 14 April 2017Lask Linz 2–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
  • 25 November 2016Austria Lustenau 2–4 Lask Linz2. Liga

Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz

Austria Lustenau

GoalsAssists

  • D. Weixelbraun61

Lask Linz

GoalsAssists

  • C. Lang80
  • S. Adeniran62
  • M. Usor33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lask Linz won 4–0 at Austria Lustenau. The model had made a win for Lask Linz its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Sasa Kalajdzic 56' for Lask Linz, Samuel Adeniran 64' for Lask Linz, Christoph Lang (penalty) 88' for Lask Linz, Christoph Lang 90+4' for Lask Linz. On expected goals it finished 0.35–3.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Austria Lustenau a 51.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 39.3% after a win, 49.8% after a draw, 56.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.6%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.

For Lask Linz the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 91.5% going in: 94.5% after a win, 90.7% after a draw, 85.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.5%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Austria Lustenau v Lask Linz has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 24% / 25% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 23% / 22% / 55%: the biggest move is Lask Linz's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Austria Lustenau win23%▼ −1
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Lask Linz win55%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.