16 August 2026, 17:15 UTC

Lommel United vs Charleroi Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Soevereinstadion, Lommel
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Lommel United 0-1 Charleroi.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Lommel United, 21% draw, 60% Charleroi — fair odds of 5.26, 4.76 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Charleroi at 60% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lommel United0%Draw3%Charleroi97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁H. Owareout: S. Adewoye
46'
🔁I. Dada-Mascollout: J. Talvitie
46'
🔁S. Appuahout: S. Nypan
58'
58'
🔁A. Bojangout: A. Colassin
63'
⚽A. Boukamir
71'
🔁M. Sowout: N. Solheid
71'
🔁P. Pfluckeout: I. Cisse
71'
🔁Y. Khalifiout: F. Mbemba
Lucas Schoofs
85'
🔁R. Seuntjensout: Z. Vancsa
85'
🔁T. Reynersout: M. Salah
85'

Match stats — Lommel United vs Charleroi

44%Possession56%
8Shots23
0On target5
2Corners12
0.34xG1.25

Goals against chances

Lommel United0 from 0.34 xGabout what the chances were worth
Charleroi1 from 1.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lommel United 4-2-3-1
  • 23M. PieklakG
  • 2J. van DuivenD
  • 3T. EyomaD
  • 5D. WoutersD
  • 34H. OwareD
  • 6J. PelupessyM
  • 44I. Dada-MascollM
  • 21S. AppuahM
  • 15L. SchoofsM
  • 10T. ReynersM
  • 30R. SeuntjensF
Substitutes
  • 1N. IvezicG
  • 4S. AdewoyeD
  • 22D. GordicM
  • 41S. NypanM
  • 17E. VandecraenD
  • 11Z. VancsaM
  • 73A. Reumers
  • 7J. TalvitieF
  • 98M. SalahF
Coach: Lee Johnson
Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. Delavallee
  • 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4A. OusouD
  • 44M. SowD
  • 24M. NzitaD
  • 6A. BoukamirM
  • 18Y. KhalifiM
  • 14P. PfluckeM
  • 8J. RomsaasM
  • 17A. BernierM
  • 9A. BojangF
Substitutes
  • 16A. CremerG
  • 65R. TeugelsD
  • 33N. SolheidD
  • 51M. KeraM
  • 19I. CisseM
  • 23B. DembagaM
  • 25A. ColassinF
  • 20F. MbembaF
  • 7S. NiouleF
Coach: Mario Kohnen

Form going into Lommel United vs Charleroi

Lommel United

  • D1-1away to St. Truiden8 August 2026

Charleroi

  • W3-1OH Leuven9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Lommel United621368-27
4Charleroi6501125+715

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lommel United vs Charleroi

  • 16 August 2026Lommel United 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 27 October 2021Charleroi 0–0 Lommel UnitedCup

Leading scorers: Lommel United and Charleroi

Lommel United

  • T. Reyners3 goals

Charleroi

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.