Türkiye
vs
Belgium
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Türkiye 1-2 Belgium.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Türkiye, 25% draw, 49% Belgium — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Türkiye 1.24, Belgium 1.93.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Türkiye vs Belgium
Has the model earned this number?
Belgium at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Türkiye vs Belgium
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1U. ÇakırG
- 18O. AydınD
- 15O. KabakD
- 3M. DemiralD
- 20F. KadıoğluD
- 16İ. YüksekM
- 6O. KökçüM
- 17Y. AkgünM
- 8A. GülerM
- 21B. YılmazM
- 9E. ÜnalF
- 22M. EskihellaçD
- 13E. ElmalıD
- 7I. FakiliF
- 19D. GülF
- 14A. KaplanD
- 4E. TopçuD
- 11C. UzunM
- 10H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 1S. LammensG
- 21T. CastagneD
- 15N. NgoyD
- 4B. MecheleD
- 5M. De CuyperD
- 7K. De BruyneM
- 23N. RaskinM
- 8Y. TielemansM
- 19Diego MoreiraF
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 11J. DokuF
- 9H. CuypersF
- 22M. GodtsF
- 6M. KeitaM
- 14D. LukebakioF
- 16J. KongoloD
- 13M. PendersG
- 2K. SabbeD
- 18J. SeysD
- 3A. TheateD
Form going into Türkiye vs Belgium
Türkiye
UEFA Nations League
- L1-3away to Italy5 October 2026
- L0-3away to Belgium2 October 2026
- L1-4Italy28 September 2026
- L0-1France25 September 2026
Belgium
UEFA Nations League
- L1-4away to France5 October 2026
- W3-0Türkiye2 October 2026
- L0-1France28 September 2026
- W2-0away to Italy25 September 2026
What these results say
- Türkiye did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Türkiye conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Türkiye had three goals or more.
- Belgium scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Türkiye | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 3 | Belgium | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Türkiye vs Belgium
- 2 October 2026Belgium 3–0 TürkiyeUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Türkiye and Belgium
Türkiye
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Belgium
GoalsAssists
- K. De Bruyne31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Belgium won 2–1 at Türkiye. The goals: Arda Güler 20' for Türkiye, Kevin De Bruyne 27' for Belgium, Charles De Ketelaere 30' for Belgium. On expected goals it finished 0.72–1.60.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Belgium the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Türkiye against 1.93 for Belgium. Türkiye's attack/defence rating is 1.51/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.5/0.61 for Belgium.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 49% for Belgium to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Belgium to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Türkiye's ratings add 8 points and Belgium's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level35%+1
- Türkiye's ratings43%+8
- Belgium's ratings49%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.