Regular Season - 38 · 14 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Antonio Accioly, Goiania
Referee: Braulio da Silva Machado
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Cuiaba.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Atletico Goianiense, 29% draw, 22% Cuiaba — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Atletico Goianiense 1.43, Cuiaba 0.79.

Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba

42%
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 15%1-1 13%0-0 12%

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Goianiense at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Goianiense98%Draw2%Cuiaba0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

José Domingos de Moraes Neto
11'
Gustavo Coutinho Silva Lopes
17'
24'
David Miguel de Souza Arcanjo
45+6'
Weverson Rodrigues Vicente Do Nascimento
54'
🔁Weverson Rodrigues Vicente Do Nascimentoout: Eric Almeida de Melo
🔁Ewerthon Diogenes da Silvaout: Warley Leandro da Silva
60'
🔁Gustavo Maia da Silvaout: David Terans
60'
🔁José Domingos de Moraes Netoout: João Pedro
60'
⚽David Teransassist: Warley Leandro da Silva
61'
🔁Gustavo Coutinho Silva Lopesout: Daniel Nascimento Peixoto dos Santos
64'
65'
🔁Vinicius Peixotoout: Guilherme De Almeida Mansano
65'
🔁Luiz Otavioout: Eliel Chrystian
🔁Matheuzinhoout: Henrique
76'
80'
🔁David Miguel de Souza Arcanjoout: Pedro Felipetto Colen Barcellos
80'
🔁Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do Carmoout: Marcos Júnior
81'
Igor

Match stats — Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba

65%Possession35%
18Shots11
4On target3
8Corners4
2.6xG1.02

Goals against chances

Atletico Goianiense1 from 2.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Cuiaba0 from 1.02 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Goianiense 4-2-3-1
  • 1Paulo VítorG
  • 2EwerthonD
  • 3J. BarretoD
  • 4Adriano MartinsD
  • 6Guilherme LopesD
  • 8NetinhoM
  • 5CristianoM
  • 11MatheusinhoM
  • 10Gustavo MaiaM
  • 7Soares GeovanyM
  • 9Gustavo CoutinhoF
Substitutes
  • 21K. PereiraM
  • 16PeixotoM
  • 14GebsonD
  • 19Henrique Freitas AlvesM
  • 12Paulo HenriqueG
  • 22Léo TocantinsF
  • 18João PedroF
  • 20D. TeransM
  • 17Leandro VilelaM
Coach: Roger
Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
  • 12BusattoG
  • 91LuisãoD
  • 30RaulD
  • 4Vitor MendesD
  • 2Igor InocêncioM
  • 97Luiz OtávioM
  • 20David MiguelM
  • 53WeversonM
  • 70Wesley DiasM
  • 41KauanM
  • 29Vinicius PeixotoF
Substitutes
  • 26Joao SilvaD
  • 11ElielF
  • 23Marcos JúniorM
  • 99Nathan Cruz da Silva RosaF
  • 50Pedro Felipetto Colen BarcellosM
  • 34JeanG
  • 14EricD
  • 39Guilherme MansanoF
  • 66Luiz Phellipe Da Silva SouzaD
Coach: Eduardo Barros

Form going into Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba

Atletico Goianiense

Serie B

  • W3-2away to Athletic Club MG8 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Fortaleza EC2 November 2026
  • L0-1Novorizontino24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ponte Preta16 October 2026

Cuiaba

Serie B

  • L1-2Juventude7 November 2026
  • L1-2São Bernardo1 November 2026
  • L0-1away to America Mineiro26 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Londrina20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Goianiense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Goianiense conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Goianiense had two goals or fewer.
  • Cuiaba did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Cuiaba conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Atletico Goianiense38161394635+1161
14Cuiaba381114133433+147

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba

  • 23 July 2026Cuiaba 0–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
  • 7 April 2026Atletico Goianiense 1–0 CuiabaCopa Centro-Oeste
  • 24 August 2025Cuiaba 2–2 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
  • 22 April 2025Atletico Goianiense 1–1 CuiabaSerie B
  • 18 October 2024Atletico Goianiense 0–0 CuiabaSerie A
  • 22 June 2024Cuiaba 0–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie A

Leading scorers: Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba

Atletico Goianiense

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Coutinho150

Cuiaba

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Goianiense beat Cuiaba 1–0. The goal: David Terans 61' for Atletico Goianiense. On expected goals it finished 2.60–1.02.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Atletico Goianiense Cuiaba
0.62 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.33 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.42
1.43 Model expected goals (this match) 0.79

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Atletico Goianiense the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense against 0.79 for Cuiaba. Atletico Goianiense's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.42 for Cuiaba.

How the model reaches 49% for Atletico Goianiense to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Goianiense to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Atletico Goianiense's ratings add 4 points and Cuiaba's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. Atletico Goianiense's ratings45%+4
  5. Cuiaba's ratings49%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.