São Bernardo
vs
Athletic Club MG
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: São Bernardo 2-2 Athletic Club MG.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% São Bernardo, 24% draw, 25% Athletic Club MG — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: São Bernardo 2.13, Athletic Club MG 1.33.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: São Bernardo vs Athletic Club MG
Has the model earned this number?
São Bernardo at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — São Bernardo vs Athletic Club MG
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Júnior OliveiraG
- 97AugustoD
- 35JemersonD
- 90LuizãoD
- 21Hugo SanchesM
- 36João Vitor Rodrigues GaldinoM
- 17RomissonM
- 16João Pedro Constancio Dos SantosM
- 30BreninhoF
- 10Fabrício DanielF
- 37D. DaviF
- 44Caio Belmonte GarcezM
- 42HyoranM
- 39Hwaskar Fagundes FilhoM
- 31Lucas FernandesM
- 6ParáD
- 9Felipe GarciaF
- 22Léo LangG
- 8FoguinhoM
- 26EduardoM
- 1TonyG
- 2Douglas PeléD
- 3JhonatanD
- 4Lucas BeleziD
- 6Gabriel Verutti Brigida RogerioD
- 16João MiguelM
- 7YarlenM
- 14Yago SantosM
- 17KauanM
- 21D. VeraM
- 20Gustavo SilvaF
- 13Philipe SampaioD
- 15JotaM
- 26GlaucoG
- 22ErickM
- 12Eduardo Freire de AndradeG
- 19Matheus De Oliveira PimentaD
- 5Felipe VieiraD
- 18Luiz FernandoM
- 8Eduardo FilipeM
Form going into São Bernardo vs Athletic Club MG
São Bernardo
Serie B
- L1-2away to Avai7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Cuiaba1 November 2026
- W3-2Vila Nova24 October 2026
- L0-1Criciuma18 October 2026
Athletic Club MG
Serie B
- L2-3Atletico Goianiense8 November 2026
- W2-1Ceara2 November 2026
- L0-1away to Operario-PR23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Avai18 October 2026
What these results say
- São Bernardo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- São Bernardo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for São Bernardo had three goals or more.
- Athletic Club MG failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Athletic Club MG conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | São Bernardo | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 53 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: São Bernardo vs Athletic Club MG
- 23 July 2026Athletic Club MG 2–1 São BernardoSerie B
- 29 June 2024Athletic Club MG 1–4 São BernardoSerie C
The result against the call
São Bernardo and Athletic Club MG drew 2–2. The goals: Kauan Rodrigues da Silva 46' for Athletic Club MG, Breno Ruan Melo Almeida 50' for São Bernardo, Felipe Garcia (penalty) 82' for São Bernardo, Gabriel Verutti Brigida Rogerio 85' for Athletic Club MG. Sent off: João Vitor Rodrigues Galdino (São Bernardo) 72'. On expected goals it finished 2.08–1.96.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives São Bernardo the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for São Bernardo against 1.33 for Athletic Club MG. São Bernardo's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.82 for Athletic Club MG.
How the model reaches 51% for São Bernardo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for São Bernardo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, São Bernardo's ratings add 3 points and Athletic Club MG's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- São Bernardo's ratings49%+3
- Athletic Club MG's ratings51%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.