America Mineiro
vs
Avai
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: America Mineiro 0-2 Avai.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% America Mineiro, 30% draw, 35% Avai — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: America Mineiro 1.16, Avai 1.16.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: America Mineiro vs Avai
Has the model earned this number?
America Mineiro at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — America Mineiro vs Avai
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91Bruno BrígidoG
- 4Rafael BarcelosD
- 45Ricardo SilvaD
- 2Emerson SantosD
- 25T. OstchegaD
- 88BarretoM
- 93J. JiménezM
- 20Paulo VictorM
- 77M. SegoviaM
- 7Guilherme ParedeM
- 9WillianF
- 27CássioG
- 32FilipeD
- 37Cesar Leme Do Nascimento JulioM
- 80Paranhos PedroF
- 19WilliamG
- 8Felipe AmaralM
- 21Eduardo PersonM
- 55Otavio GoncalvesM
- 31Fábio AlmeidaD
- 1Igor BohnG
- 2WallisonD
- 3AllysonD
- 40ReynaldoD
- 66QuaresmaD
- 8Luiz HenriqueM
- 77Zé RicardoM
- 14Daniel PenhaM
- 95WendersonM
- 10Jean LucasM
- 9Léo GamalhoF
- 94Bruno FerreiraG
- 70GasparF
- 15Guilherme VargasD
- 18HyanM
- 22João Vitor Cardoso de SouzaD
- 35PedrãoD
- 37RildoF
- 30Kauã Gabriel Pereira Dos SantosF
- 25Paulo VitorM
Form going into America Mineiro vs Avai
America Mineiro
Serie B
- W1-0away to Ceara8 November 2026
- W3-1away to Londrina1 November 2026
- W1-0Cuiaba26 October 2026
- W1-0Operario-PR17 October 2026
Avai
Serie B
- W2-1São Bernardo7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Nautico Recife31 October 2026
- L0-2Botafogo SP24 October 2026
- D0-0Athletic Club MG18 October 2026
What these results say
- America Mineiro won every one of these 4 matches.
- America Mineiro scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- America Mineiro kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Avai failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Avai failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Avai conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | America Mineiro | 38 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 57 | -30 | 29 |
| 17 | Avai | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: America Mineiro vs Avai
- 21 July 2026Avai 2–1 America MineiroSerie B
- 2 September 2025America Mineiro 2–0 AvaiSerie B
- 26 April 2025Avai 3–0 America MineiroSerie B
- 12 October 2024Avai 2–2 America MineiroSerie B
- 26 June 2024America Mineiro 1–1 AvaiSerie B
- 31 July 2022America Mineiro 3–1 AvaiSerie A
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Avai (17th, with America Mineiro 19th), while our numbers lean to America Mineiro. America Mineiro rate 0.43 in attack and 1.85 in defence, Avai 0.52 and 1.66 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Avai a 88.0% chance to finish in the bottom four: 62.4% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.4%, 25.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America Mineiro the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for America Mineiro against 1.16 for Avai. America Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.66 for Avai.
How the model reaches 35% for America Mineiro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for America Mineiro to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, America Mineiro's ratings take away 3 points and Avai's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- America Mineiro's ratings39%−3
- Avai's ratings35%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.