1 November 2026, 21:30 UTC

Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Referee: Filip Dujic
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Atlanta United FC 3-1 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Atlanta United FC, 26% draw, 34% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atlanta United FC at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atlanta United FC99%Draw1%Toronto FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Miguel Almirónassist: Aleksey Miranchuk
22'
33'
Dániel Sallói
⚽Cooper Sanchezassist: Miguel Almirón
40'
⚽Aleksey Miranchuk
51'
54'
🔁Niklas Dorschout: Alonso
54'
🔁Dániel Sallóiout: Lewis Morgan
69'
🔁Nickseon Gomisout: Richard Chukwu
69'
🔁Matheus Pereira de Souzaout: Derrick Etienne Jr.
🔁Miguel Almirónout: Ajani Fortune
70'
🔁Mauricio Amaroout: Adrian Gill
70'
79'
⚽Lewis Morganassist: Josh Sargent
🔁Cooper Sanchezout: Tristan Muyumba
80'
🔁Breel Emboloout: Luke Brennan
80'
86'
🔁Theo Corbeanuout: Emilio Aristizábal
90+2'
Alonso

Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC

48%Possession52%
19Shots13
8On target3
3Corners3
4.64xG1.44

Goals against chances

Atlanta United FC3 from 4.64 xGless than the chances were worth
Toronto FC1 from 1.44 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. HoyosG
  • 55T. JacobD
  • 27P. DíazD
  • 6J. AlonsoD
  • 3E. BáezD
  • 48C. SanchezM
  • 14M. AmaroM
  • 11G. GaloppoM
  • 59A. MiranchukF
  • 36B. EmboloF
  • 10M. AlmirónF
Substitutes
  • 7S. AlzateM
  • 20L. BrennanM
  • 47Matthew EdwardsD
  • 35A. FortuneM
  • 16Adrian GillM
  • 42Jayden HibbertG
  • 8T. MuyumbaM
  • 22F. PicaultF
  • 30C. TogashiF
Coach: G. Martino
Toronto FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 13B. KuscevicD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 21J. OsorioM
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 10D. MihailovićM
  • 7T. CorbeanuF
  • 9J. SargentF
  • 20D. SallóiF
Substitutes
  • 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
  • 96R. ChukwuD
  • 71M. CimermancicM
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 11D. EtienneF
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 90L. MorganF
  • 23W. YarbroughG
Coach: R. Fraser

Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC

Atlanta United FC

Major League Soccer

  • L1-2away to New York City FC28 October 2026
  • L2-3Chicago Fire24 October 2026
  • L1-3Inter Miami17 October 2026

Toronto FC

Major League Soccer

  • W2-1DC United28 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Columbus Crew24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to New York Red Bulls17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Atlanta United FC3496194360-1733
12Toronto FC34912135267-1539

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC

  • 25 April 2026Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 24 August 2025Atlanta United FC 0–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 12 July 2025Toronto FC 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 29 June 2024Atlanta United FC 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 23 March 2024Toronto FC 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 April 2023Toronto FC 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Atlanta United FC beat Toronto FC 3–1. The model had made a win for Atlanta United FC its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Miguel Almirón 22' for Atlanta United FC, Cooper Sanchez 40' for Atlanta United FC, Aleksey Miranchuk 51' for Atlanta United FC, Lewis Morgan 79' for Toronto FC. On expected goals it finished 4.64–1.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Toronto FC a 8.8% chance to finish in the top nine: 20.7% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Atlanta United FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Atlanta United FC win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Toronto FC win34%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.