1 November 2026, 01:30 UTC

Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result

Dick's Sporting Goods Park, Trade City
Referee: Malik Badawi
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Colorado Rapids 2-4 Chicago Fire.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Colorado Rapids, 27% draw, 36% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Colorado Rapids at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Colorado Rapids0%Draw1%Chicago Fire99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Morgan Whittakerassist: Georgi Minoungou
22'
41'
⚽Jonathan Bamba
45+1'
Noah Allen
Miguel Navarro
51'
56'
⚽Jonathan Bambaassist: Jonathan Dean
⚽Paxten Aaronsonassist: Georgi Minoungou
58'
🔁Keegan Rosenberryout: Noah Cobb
62'
🔁Darren Yapiout: Donavan Phillip
62'
63'
🔁Djé D'Avillaout: Anzor Mekvabishvili
63'
🔁Maren Haile-Selassieout: Robert Lewandowski
🔁Georgi Minoungouout: Theodore Ku-DiPietro
67'
Hamzat Ojediran
68'
Theodore Ku-DiPietro
70'
74'
⚽Robert Lewandowskiassist: Philip Zinckernagel
🔁Hamzat Ojediranout: Sayed Abu Farkhi
77'
81'
🔁Johan Arath Gomezout: André Franco
82'
🔁Noah Allenout: Andrew Gutman
87'
🔁Philip Zinckernagelout: Puso Dithejane
88'
⚽Puso Dithejaneassist: Robert Lewandowski
Rob Holding
90'
90+2'
Andrew Gutman

Match stats — Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire

57%Possession43%
14Shots14
4On target6
5Corners6
1.45xG2.37

Goals against chances

Colorado Rapids2 from 1.45 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chicago Fire4 from 2.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1
  • 41N. DefreitasG
  • 2K. RosenberryD
  • 6R. HoldingD
  • 5Loïc WilliamsD
  • 29M. NavarroD
  • 13W. Frederick IIM
  • 8H. OjediranM
  • 7M. WhittakerM
  • 10P. AaronsonM
  • 93G. MinoungouM
  • 77D. YapiF
Substitutes
  • 32D. PhillipF
  • 99J. TravisD
  • 21T. Ku-DiPietroM
  • 16A. HarrisF
  • 24N. CobbD
  • 31A. BeaudryG
  • 61B. DowdG
  • 9S. AbuF
Coach: Matt Wells
Chicago Fire 4-4-2
  • 1C. BradyG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 4M. MbokaziD
  • 32N. AllenD
  • 11P. ZinckernagelM
  • 6A. SalétrosM
  • 42T. D'AvillaM
  • 19J. BambaM
  • 18J. GómezF
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieF
Substitutes
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
  • 2Leonardo BarrosoD
  • 23A. MekvabishviliM
  • 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 12P. DithejaneF
  • 10André FrancoM
  • 22M. PinedaD
Coach: G. Berhalter

Form going into Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire

Colorado Rapids

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes29 October 2026
  • W1-0Vancouver Whitecaps25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Portland Timbers18 October 2026

Chicago Fire

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2Orlando City SC29 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Atlanta United FC24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to New England Revolution17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Colorado Rapids34127154750-343
4Chicago Fire34167116454+1055

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire

  • 20 April 2019Chicago Fire 4–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 14 June 2018Colorado Rapids 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 18 May 2017Chicago Fire 3–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 19 June 2016Colorado Rapids 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 23 August 2015Chicago Fire 0–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 5 June 2014Colorado Rapids 0–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Chicago Fire won 4–2 at Colorado Rapids. The model had leaned towards a win for Colorado Rapids at 37% and given a win for Chicago Fire 36%. The goals: Morgan Whittaker 22' for Colorado Rapids, Jonathan Bamba 41' for Chicago Fire, Jonathan Bamba 56' for Chicago Fire, Paxten Aaronson 58' for Colorado Rapids, Robert Lewandowski 74' for Chicago Fire, Puso Dithejane 88' for Chicago Fire. On expected goals it finished 1.45–2.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Colorado Rapids a 81.3% chance to finish in the top nine: 99.2% after a win, 87.5% after a draw, 60.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.6%, 20.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Colorado Rapids v Chicago Fire has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Colorado Rapids's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Colorado Rapids win37%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Chicago Fire win36%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.