2 November 2026, 02:45 UTC

Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result

Providence Park, Portland
Referee: Drew Fischer
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Portland Timbers 3-1 Houston Dynamo.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Portland Timbers, 28% draw, 33% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portland Timbers at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portland Timbers99%Draw1%Houston Dynamo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ian Smith
18'
⚽David Da Costaassist: Vincent Janssen
25'
36'
🔁Franco Negriout: Duane Holmes
40'
Diadie Samassekou
61'
Agustin Resch
🔁Eric Izoitaout: Cole Bassett
62'
⚽Kristoffer Veldeassist: Vincent Janssen
65'
66'
🔁Lyle Fosterout: Duncan McGuire
66'
🔁Ibrahim Aliyuout: Felipe·De Andrade Vieira
66'
🔁Arturout: Matthew Arana
71'
⚽Agustín Bouzatassist: Duncan McGuire
⚽Vincent Janssenassist: David Da Costa
78'
🔁Vincent Janssenout: Alexander Aravena
82'
🔁Ariel Lassiterout: Omir Fernandez
82'
83'
🔁Duane Holmesout: Nick Markanich
🔁Jose Caicedoout: Julio Joao Ortiz Landazuri
90'
🔁David Da Costaout: Diego Chará
90'
Diego Chará
90+3'

Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo

46%Possession54%
18Shots8
6On target1
6Corners6
3.81xG0.46

Goals against chances

Portland Timbers3 from 3.81 xGless than the chances were worth
Houston Dynamo1 from 0.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 12R. HernándezD
  • 20F. SurmanD
  • 2J. WatermanD
  • 23Ian SmithD
  • 30J. CaicedoM
  • 7A. LassiterM
  • 73Eric IzoitaM
  • 10David Pereira da CostaM
  • 99K. VeldeM
  • 14V. JanssenF
Substitutes
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 21D. CharáM
  • 22O. FernandezF
  • 88Andrew GuerraF
  • 28A. AravenaF
  • 16S. JuraD
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 26H. SulteG
Coach: Martí Cifuentes
Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. BondG
  • 11L. EnnaliD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 34A. ReschD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 18D. SamassékouM
  • 6ArturM
  • 24A. IbrahimM
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 19M. BoguszM
  • 9L. FosterF
Substitutes
  • 3Antônio CarlosD
  • 22M. AranaM
  • 35Logan ErbG
  • 36Felipe AndradeD
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 17N. MarkanichF
  • 23D. McGuireF
  • 37G. RiveraM
Coach: Ben Olsen

Form going into Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo

Portland Timbers

Major League Soccer

  • W3-2away to St. Louis City29 October 2026
  • W3-2Charlotte25 October 2026
  • D0-0Colorado Rapids18 October 2026

Houston Dynamo

Major League Soccer

  • W1-0away to Seattle Sounders29 October 2026
  • D0-0Minnesota United FC25 October 2026
  • D2-2FC Dallas18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Portland Timbers34137146261+146
5Houston Dynamo34149114343051

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo

  • 15 March 2026Houston Dynamo 3–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 21 September 2025Houston Dynamo 1–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 30 March 2025Portland Timbers 3–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 2 June 2024Portland Timbers 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 17 March 2024Houston Dynamo 1–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 22 October 2023Portland Timbers 1–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Portland Timbers and Houston Dynamo

Portland Timbers

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 62 league goals as a side.

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Portland Timbers beat Houston Dynamo 3–1. The model had made a win for Portland Timbers its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: David Da Costa 25' for Portland Timbers, Kristoffer Velde 65' for Portland Timbers, Agustín Bouzat 71' for Houston Dynamo, Vincent Janssen 78' for Portland Timbers. On expected goals it finished 3.81–0.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Portland Timbers a 37.4% chance to finish in the top nine: 63.4% after a win, 32.2% after a draw, 7.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.4%, 26 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.