24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Cambridge United vs Plymouth League One prediction & result

Abbey Stadium, Cambridge
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Cambridge United 2-3 Plymouth.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Cambridge United, 26% draw, 32% Plymouth — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cambridge United at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Alex Mitchell
Sullay Kaikai
14'
29'
Tyreeq Bakinson
41'
⚽Louis Appere (OG)
50'
⚽Xavier Amaechiassist: Harvey White
⚽Sullay Kaikai
57'
🔁Raees Bangura-Williamsout: Shayne Lavery
61'
🔁George Hoddleout: Owen Moxon
62'
68'
🔁Xavier Amaechiout: Caleb Watts
74'
⚽Aribim Pepple (pen)
78'
🔁Jack Mackenzieout: Alex·Hartridge
🔁Pelly Ruddock Mpanzuout: Callum stead
80'
82'
🔁Matthew Sorinolaout: Joe Edwards
83'
🔁Tyreeq Bakinsonout: Bradley Ibrahim
⚽Shayne Laveryassist: Zak·Bradshaw
86'
Cathal Séan Heffernan Andrews
90+5'

Match stats — Cambridge United vs Plymouth

60%Possession40%
20Shots8
6On target5
13Corners3
1.46xG1.53

Goals against chances

Cambridge United2 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth
Plymouth3 from 1.53 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cambridge United 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. EastwoodG
  • 2L. BennettD
  • 6K. WattsD
  • 15Cathal Séan Heffernan AndrewsD
  • 22Z. BradshawD
  • 17P. MpanzuM
  • 38G. HoddleM
  • 10B. KnightM
  • 44Raees Bangura-WilliamsM
  • 11S. KaikaiM
  • 9L. AppéréF
Substitutes
  • 5P. BauerD
  • 29S. CurtisD
  • 13G. BreezeG
  • 7Isaac HeathF
  • 19S. LaveryF
  • 8O. MoxonM
  • 12Callum steadF
Coach: N. Harris
Plymouth 3-4-3
  • 1M. MahoneyG
  • 5Julio PleguezueloD
  • 15A. MitchellD
  • 45W. HardingD
  • 29M. SorinolaM
  • 19T. BakinsonM
  • 7H. WhiteM
  • 3Jack MackenzieM
  • 10X. AmaechiF
  • 27A. PeppleF
  • 9W. EvansF
Substitutes
  • 11R. CurtisF
  • 8J. EdwardsD
  • 22A. HartridgeD
  • 23B. IbrahimM
  • 14O. IrowF
  • 21James StorerG
  • 17C. WattsM
Coach: Tom Cleverley

Form going into Cambridge United vs Plymouth

Cambridge United

League One

  • D2-2Wycombe20 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Barnsley17 October 2026

Plymouth

League One

  • L0-3away to Stevenage20 October 2026
  • L0-2Huddersfield17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cambridge United145632121021
6Plymouth157262122-123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cambridge United vs Plymouth

  • 22 April 2023Plymouth 3–1 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • 10 December 2022Cambridge United 0–0 PlymouthLeague One
  • 22 February 2022Cambridge United 2–0 PlymouthLeague One
  • 17 August 2021Plymouth 1–1 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • 22 February 2020Plymouth 0–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague Two
  • 7 December 2019Cambridge United 1–0 PlymouthLeague Two

Leading scorers: Cambridge United and Plymouth

Cambridge United

GoalsAssists

  • B. Knight42

Plymouth

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pepple50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Plymouth won 3–2 at Cambridge United. The model had leaned towards a win for Cambridge United at 42% and given a win for Plymouth 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Louis Appere (own goal) 41' for Plymouth, Xavier Amaechi 50' for Plymouth, Sullay Kaikai 57' for Cambridge United, Aribim Pepple (penalty) 74' for Plymouth, Shayne Lavery 86' for Cambridge United. On expected goals it finished 1.46–1.53.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cambridge United a 8.6% chance to finish in the top two: 10.2% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 6.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.2%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

For Plymouth the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 7.0% going in: 8.7% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 5.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.7%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cambridge United v Plymouth has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 37% / 26% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is Cambridge United's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Cambridge United win42%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Plymouth win32%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.