24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday League One prediction & result

Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Doncaster 2-0 Sheffield Wednesday.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Doncaster, 28% draw, 46% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sheffield Wednesday at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Doncaster99%Draw1%Sheffield Wednesday0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Owen Bailey
6'
14'
Ali Al-Hamadi
⚽Owen Baileyassist: Isaac Hutchinson
16'
45'
🔁Jaden Heskeyout: Mason Burstow
🔁Will Keaneout: Alfie May
68'
🔁Isaac Hutchinsonout: Brandon Hanlan
68'
🔁Jamie Sterryout: George Broadbent
68'
🔁Hakeeb Adelakunout: Tommi Dylan O'Reilly
69'
Robbie Gotts
73'
80'
🔁Ali Al-Hamadiout: William Grainger
🔁Leon Ayindeout: Bayley McCann
81'
86'
Billy Mitchell
88'
🔁Liam Palmerout: Sean Fusire

Match stats — Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday

35%Possession65%
19Shots13
6On target8
9Corners5
1.3xG1.26

Goals against chances

Doncaster2 from 1.30 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sheffield Wednesday0 from 1.26 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Doncaster 4-2-3-1
  • 1Tommy SimkinG
  • 2J. SterryD
  • 27S. GrehanD
  • 12N. ByrneD
  • 23J. SeniorD
  • 22R. GottsM
  • 4O. BaileyM
  • 11L. AyindeM
  • 21I. HutchinsonM
  • 47H. AdelakunM
  • 18W. KeaneF
Substitutes
  • 8G. BroadbentM
  • 9B. HanlanF
  • 10A. MayF
  • 25B. McCannD
  • 6J. McGrathD
  • 7T. O'ReillyM
  • 41Jacob Samuel BryantG
Coach: G. McCann
Sheffield Wednesday 4-4-1-1
  • 13A. Maynard-BrewerG
  • 7Y. ValeryD
  • 2L. PalmerD
  • 6L. CooperD
  • 3M. LoweD
  • 20K. MorrisonM
  • 16B. MitchellM
  • 10B. BannanM
  • 18Jaden HeskeyM
  • 50D. Keillor-DunnM
  • 12Ali Al HamadiF
Substitutes
  • 48Mason Paul James BurstowF
  • 14S. FusireM
  • 19W. GraingerF
  • 33R. JamesD
  • 26S. SwinkelsD
  • 27C. TruemanG
  • 30Ernie WeaverD
Coach: H. Pedersen

Form going into Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday

Doncaster

League One

  • L0-2Stockport County20 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Leicester17 October 2026

Sheffield Wednesday

League One

  • L0-2away to Notts County20 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Doncaster133371422-812
5Sheffield Wednesday146532514+1123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday

  • 25 July 2023Doncaster 1–0 Sheffield WednesdayFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 February 2022Doncaster 1–3 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
  • 14 August 2021Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 DoncasterLeague One
  • 22 March 2014Doncaster 1–0 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
  • 28 September 2013Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 DoncasterChampionship

Leading scorers: Doncaster and Sheffield Wednesday

Doncaster

No player in League One's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Sheffield Wednesday

GoalsAssists

  • J. Lowe52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Doncaster beat Sheffield Wednesday 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sheffield Wednesday at 46% and given a win for Doncaster 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Owen Bailey 6' for Doncaster, Owen Bailey 16' for Doncaster. On expected goals it finished 1.30–1.26.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Doncaster a 30.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 24.6% after a win, 29.9% after a draw, 34.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.6%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

For Sheffield Wednesday the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 29.0% going in: 32.3% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 23.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.7%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Doncaster v Sheffield Wednesday has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 26% / 28% / 46%: the biggest move is Sheffield Wednesday's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Doncaster win26%▼ −8
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Sheffield Wednesday win46%▲ +9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.