Scotland vs Slovenia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Scotland 1-2 Slovenia.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Scotland, 30% draw, 38% Slovenia — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Slovenia at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Scotland vs Slovenia
Line-ups
- 1A. GunnG
- 5S. WelshD
- 13J. HendryD
- 4L. BinksD
- 17B. DoakM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 19L. FergusonM
- 8B. GilmourM
- 3A. RobertsonM
- 11R. ChristieM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 20K. BowieF
- 15J. McPakeF
- 23Kristi MontgomeryM
- 14L. MillerM
- 21S. BainG
- 16Findlay CurtisF
- 6J. DoigD
- 22N. PattersonD
- 18L. GrahamD
- 1J. OblakG
- 2Ž. KarničnikD
- 23D. BrekaloD
- 6J. BijolD
- 17D. ZecD
- 13E. JanžaD
- 20A. MatkoM
- 4M. ZabukovnikM
- 22A. ČerinM
- 15D. ŠturmM
- 18Z. VipotnikF
- 11Ž. CelarF
- 21V. DrkušićD
- 10T. ElšnikM
- 19T. HorvatM
- 5S. KuzmićD
- 8S. LovrićM
- 14T. SvetlinM
- 7J. UrbančičD
- 16I. VekičG
Form going into Scotland vs Slovenia
Scotland
UEFA Nations League
- W2-0away to North Macedonia3 October 2026
- L0-3Switzerland29 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovenia26 September 2026
Slovenia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Switzerland3 October 2026
- W2-0North Macedonia29 September 2026
- D0-0Scotland26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Scotland | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Scotland vs Slovenia
- 26 September 2026Slovenia 0–0 ScotlandUEFA Nations League
- 8 October 2017Slovenia 2–2 ScotlandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 26 March 2017Scotland 1–0 SloveniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
The result against the call
Slovenia won 2–1 at Scotland. The model had made a win for Slovenia its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ryan Christie 31' for Scotland, Aljosa Matko 56' for Slovenia, Danijel Sturm 71' for Slovenia.
How the call on Scotland v Slovenia has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Scotland's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Scotland win32%▼ −5
- Draw30%=
- Slovenia win38%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.