11 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% NEC Nijmegen, 21% draw, 17% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NEC Nijmegen at 62% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEC Nijmegen8%Draw90%Olympiakos Piraeus2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Dani García
15'
🔁Jota Silvaout: K. Fortounis
🔁S. Ouaissaout: E. Mor
30'
🔁P. Sandlerout: B. Pereira
34'
46'
⚽A. El Kaabi
55'
Rodinei
59'
Gustavo Sá
61'
🔁G. Saout: C. Mouzakitis
⚽B. Linssenassist: D. Tadic
70'
72'
🔁D. Garciaout: L. Scipioni
72'
🔁G. Martinsout: J. Roca
79'
•Kostas Fortounis
80'
Kostas Fortounis
Brayann Pereira
88'
🔁C. Bischoffout: K. Sierhuis
88'
Kaj Sierhuis
90+4'
•Kaj Sierhuis
90+4'
⚽E. Morassist: K. Sierhuis
95'
103'
🔁out: Chiquinho
103'
🔁P. Retsosout: Z. Smajlovic
🔁B. Linssenout: J. Monteiro
106'
🔁N. Lebretonout: B. Nuytinck
106'
🔁out: K. Kers
106'
111'
Lorenzo Scipioni

Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus

54%Possession46%
16Shots10
7On target2
3Corners4

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen 3-1-4-2
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 21T. StormD
  • 3P. SandlerD
  • 24D. FonvilleD
  • 6D. NejasmicM
  • 25S. OuaissaM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 10D. TadicM
  • 99C. BischoffM
  • 9T. CheryF
  • 30B. LinssenF
Substitutes
  • 36F. EntiusG
  • 38J. Geneste
  • 35J. MonteiroM
  • 8I. Hansen-AaroenM
  • 17B. NuytinckD
  • 7E. MorF
  • 5T. OuwejanD
  • 14K. SierhuisF
  • 11W. T. WillumssonM
Coach: Dick Schreuder
Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 31B. PopovicG
  • 23RodineiD
  • 45P. RetsosD
  • 5L. PirolaD
  • 70B. OnyemaechiD
  • 14D. GarciaM
  • 32S. HezzeM
  • 10G. MartinsM
  • 8G. SaM
  • 20Jota SilvaM
  • 9A. El KaabiF
Substitutes
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 91D. StournarasG
  • 2M. SaliakasD
  • 16L. ScipioniM
  • 96C. MouzakitisM
  • 77C. FilisM
  • 7K. FortounisM
  • 25P. MaffeoD
  • 22ChiquinhoM
Coach: Luis Mendilibar Jose

Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus

NEC Nijmegen

  • L1-2Telstar8 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus4 August 2026

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • D0-0NEC Nijmegen4 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus

  • 11 August 2026NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Champions League
  • 4 August 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–0 NEC NijmegenUEFA Champions League
  • 27 July 2024NEC Nijmegen 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.