Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners A-League prediction & result
Final score: Melbourne Victory 1-1 Central Coast Mariners.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Melbourne Victory, 25% draw, 27% Central Coast Mariners — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Melbourne Victory at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
Line-ups
- 25Jack DuncanG
- 36Harrison ShillingtonD
- 15Tom LockyerD
- 3Jason DavidsonD
- 18Franco LinoD
- 6Louis D'ArrigoM
- 8Jordi ValadonM
- 23Keegan JelacicM
- 21Guillermo MayM
- 11ClarismarioM
- 44Charles NdukaF
- 4Philipp ZiereisD
- 10Denis GenreauM
- 29Michael GhossainiF
- 14Matthew GrimaldiF
- 1Jack WarshawskyG
- 22Xavier StellaD
- 9Harry SawyerF
- 30Andrew RedmayneG
- 15Storm RouxD
- 3Diesel HerringtonD
- 12Noah MccannD
- 5Lucas MauragisD
- 72Ali AuglahM
- 8Chris DonnellM
- 6Haine EamesM
- 39Alexander BoltonM
- 37Bailey BrandtmanF
- 9Oliver LavaleF
- 43Luke BecvinovskiF
- 45Jesse MantellM
- 22Arthur De LimaM
- 17Presley OrtizF
- 50Jai AjanovicG
- 41Shumba MutokoyiD
- 52Isaac KwonF
Form going into Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne Victory
A-League
- D1-1Melbourne City24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wellington Phoenix18 October 2026
Central Coast Mariners
A-League
- L0-2away to Wellington Phoenix25 October 2026
- D2-2Newcastle Jets17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
- 21 March 2026Melbourne Victory 4–1 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 1 February 2026Central Coast Mariners 1–0 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 8 March 2025Melbourne Victory 3–0 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 18 October 2024Central Coast Mariners 0–0 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 25 May 2024Central Coast Mariners 3–1 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 25 February 2024Melbourne Victory 0–1 Central Coast MarinersA-League
Leading scorers: Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne Victory
GoalsAssists
- K. Jelacic20
- J. Valadon20
- C. Nduka12
Central Coast Mariners
GoalsAssists
- O. Lavale30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Melbourne Victory at 48% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: O. Lavale 63' for Central Coast Mariners, J. Valadon 69' for Melbourne Victory. Sent off: H. Shillington (Melbourne Victory) 13'.
How the call on Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 45% / 25% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Melbourne Victory's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Melbourne Victory win48%▲ +3
- Draw25%=
- Central Coast Mariners win27%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.