Perth Glory vs Adelaide United A-League prediction & result
Final score: Perth Glory 4-0 Adelaide United.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Perth Glory, 25% draw, 42% Adelaide United — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Adelaide United at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
Line-ups
- 29Daniel SolskyG
- 30Tadiwanashe KuzambaD
- 18Cher DengD
- 5Lachlan JacksonD
- 3Sam SuttonD
- 9Jaiden KucharskiM
- 16Lucas SciclunaM
- 27William FreneyM
- 7Stefan ColakovskiM
- 17Pieter JacobszF
- 10Tom LawrenceF
- 39Giovanni De AbreuM
- 25Sebastian DespotovskiF
- 11Sebastian KukuckaF
- 8Jay O'SheaM
- 21Matthew EllisD
- 1Matt SuttonG
- 24Andriano LebibD
- 22Joshua SmitsG
- 14Jay BarnettD
- 79Feyzo KasumovicD
- 4Panagiotis KikianisD
- 62Fabian TalladiraD
- 65Joey GaruccioM
- 23Luke DuzelM
- 55Ethan AlagichM
- 19Amlani TatuF
- 35Brody BurkittF
- 12Jonny YullF
- 58Harry CrawfordF
- 10Juan MuñizM
- 99Ajak RiakF
- 7Ryan KittoD
- 87AnselmoM
- 40Ethan CoxG
- 52Sotiri PhillisD
Form going into Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
Perth Glory
A-League
- L1-2away to Brisbane Roar23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Macarthur FC17 October 2026
Adelaide United
A-League
- L1-2away to Sydney FC25 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
- 3 October 2026Perth Glory 1–3 Adelaide UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 27 September 2026Perth Glory 2–0 Adelaide UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 20 February 2026Adelaide United 4–0 Perth GloryA-League
- 20 December 2025Perth Glory 0–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 12 April 2025Perth Glory 4–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 29 November 2024Adelaide United 2–2 Perth GloryA-League
Leading scorers: Perth Glory and Adelaide United
Perth Glory
GoalsAssists
- J. Kucharski31
- M. Ellis20
Adelaide United
GoalsAssists
- Brody Burkitt20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Perth Glory beat Adelaide United 4–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Adelaide United at 42% and given a win for Perth Glory 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Kucharski 16' for Perth Glory, T. Kuzamba 20' for Perth Glory, S. Colakovski 33' for Perth Glory, M. Ellis 85' for Perth Glory.