17 October 2026, 12:45 UTC

Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
Referee: Sebastian Krasny
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Motor Lublin 3-2 Slask Wroclaw.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Motor Lublin, 25% draw, 27% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Motor Lublin at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motor Lublin5%Draw91%Slask Wroclaw4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Przemyslaw Banaszakassist: Piotr Samiec-Talar
45'
🔁luka marjanacout: Malaly Dembele
•Makan Aiko
47'
⚽Karol Czubak (pen)
50'
⚽Makan Aikoassist: Yacine Bourhane
61'
64'
Przemyslaw Banaszak
66'
⚽Malaly Dembeleassist: Piotr Samiec-Talar
66'
•Malaly Dembele
🔁Kamil Lukoszekout: Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicao
71'
Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye
73'
75'
🔁Przemyslaw Banaszakout: Leltsin Jeronimo Semedo Camoes
⚽Christopher Simon
77'
81'
🔁Alex Timossi Anderssonout: Jan Jurčec
🔁Makan Aikoout: Thomas Santos
82'
🔁Rony Lopesout: Alioune Oumar Tall
83'
85'
🔁Eniss Shabaniout: Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
85'
🔁Piotr Samiec-Talarout: Adam Ciućka
87'
Marc Llinares
•Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye
88'
90+2'
Karol Niemczycki
⚽Yacine Bourhane (pen)
90+2'
🔁Christopher Simonout: Paskal Konrad Meyer
90+4'
Karol Czubak
90+10'

Match stats — Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw

66%Possession34%
29Shots6
11On target3
10Corners1
3.89xG0.79

Goals against chances

Motor Lublin3 from 3.89 xGless than the chances were worth
Slask Wroclaw2 from 0.79 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1
  • 33G. TratnikG
  • 17K. LukoszekD
  • 39M. BartošD
  • 4T. PlavotićD
  • 24F. LubereckiD
  • 27Y. BourhaneM
  • 30M. NdiayeM
  • 9Rony LopesM
  • 8C. SimonM
  • 70M. AïkoM
  • 10K. CzubakF
Substitutes
  • 71M. PopaG
  • 23F. HaxhaM
  • 18B. BereszyńskiD
  • 5A. AkatovD
  • 2Paskal Konrad MeyerD
  • 29T. SantosD
  • 6M. ŁęgowskiM
  • 47Alioune TallM
  • 11Fábio RonaldoM
Coach: M. Misiura
Slask Wroclaw 5-4-1
  • 1K. NiemczyckiG
  • 21A. Timossi AnderssonD
  • 33E. MatsenkoD
  • 5L. BaD
  • 44M. MalecD
  • 8Marc LlinaresD
  • 7P. Samiec-TalarM
  • 17K. LinettyM
  • 77E. ShabaniM
  • 11L. MarjanacM
  • 19P. BanaszakF
Substitutes
  • 10M. DembéléF
  • 88A. CiuckaM
  • 18K. BorysM
  • 20G. TomasiewiczM
  • 2D. SzalaD
  • 27Jan JurčecD
  • 4M. DijakovicD
  • 25M. SzromnikG
  • 9Ieltsin CamõesF
Coach: A. Šimundža

Form going into Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw

Motor Lublin

Ekstraklasa

  • W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026

Slask Wroclaw

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-4Lech Poznan10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Motor Lublin145452224-219
17Slask Wroclaw142481725-810

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw

  • 5 April 2025Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 28 September 2024Motor Lublin 2–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Slask Wroclaw

Motor Lublin

GoalsAssists

  • K. Czubak70
  • M. Ndiaye43

Slask Wroclaw

GoalsAssists

  • P. Banaszak50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Motor Lublin beat Slask Wroclaw 3–2. The model had made a win for Motor Lublin its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Przemyslaw Banaszak 11' for Slask Wroclaw, Makan Aiko 61' for Motor Lublin, Malaly Dembele 66' for Slask Wroclaw, Christopher Simon 77' for Motor Lublin, Yacine Bourhane (penalty) 90+2' for Motor Lublin. On expected goals it finished 3.89–0.79.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Motor Lublin a 25.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.1% after a win, 27.6% after a draw, 31.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.1%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

For Slask Wroclaw the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 54.1% going in: 43.9% after a win, 53.9% after a draw, 59.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.5%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Motor Lublin's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Motor Lublin win48%▲ +8
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Slask Wroclaw win27%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.