15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Mansfield Town vs Oxford United League One prediction & result

One Call Stadium, Mansfield
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Mansfield Town 1-1 Oxford United.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Mansfield Town, 29% draw, 37% Oxford United — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oxford United at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mansfield Town6%Draw92%Oxford United2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh
14'
22'
Peter Kioso
34'
⚽Luka Lynchassist: Siriki Dembele
🔁George Abbottout: Stephen McLaughlin
45'
Jonathan Russell
54'
59'
🔁Luka Lynchout: Mo Missanga
59'
🔁Louie Sibleyout: Gatlin O Donkor
🔁Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welshout: Tyler Roberts
61'
72'
Gatlin O Donkor
🔁Ryan Sweeneyout: Frazer Blake-Tracy
73'
🔁Jonathan Russellout: Regan·Hendry
73'
75'
Peter Kioso
77'
🔁Mark Harrisout: Jack Currie
🔁Elliott Hewittout: George Maris
79'
80'
🔁Siriki Dembeleout: Sam Long
⚽Michael Smith
82'
84'
Gatlin O Donkor

Match stats — Mansfield Town vs Oxford United

51%Possession49%
24Shots7
4On target2
11Corners3
3.42xG0.83

Goals against chances

Mansfield Town1 from 3.42 xGless than the chances were worth
Oxford United1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. RobertsG
  • 4E. HewittD
  • 23A. OshilajaD
  • 5R. SweeneyD
  • 25L. ReedM
  • 22N. Moriah-WelshM
  • 13J. RussellM
  • 33G. AbbottM
  • 16L. ThompsonM
  • 14M. SmithF
  • 18R. OatesF
Substitutes
  • 19T. RobertsF
  • 3S. McLaughlinD
  • 10G. MarisM
  • 20F. Blake-TracyD
  • 2K. KnoyleD
  • 24R. HendryM
  • 9J. BoweryD
Coach: N. Clough
Oxford United 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. CummingG
  • 30P. KiosoD
  • 6M. HelikD
  • 3C. BrownD
  • 15B. SpencerD
  • 8C. BrannaganM
  • 32L. SibleyM
  • 20L. LynchM
  • 4Kai AndrewsM
  • 23S. DembéléM
  • 9M. HarrisF
Substitutes
  • 26J. CurrieD
  • 13S. EastwoodG
  • 11T. GoodrhamF
  • 57M. MissangaF
  • 19G. O'DonkorF
  • 27L. SnowdenF
  • 2S. LongD
Coach: A. Ramsey

Form going into Mansfield Town vs Oxford United

Mansfield Town

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Bromley10 October 2026

Oxford United

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Notts County10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Mansfield Town135442018+219
3Oxford United137512211+1126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mansfield Town vs Oxford United

  • 27 July 2024Mansfield Town 1–0 Oxford UnitedFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 February 2016Oxford United 2–2 Mansfield TownLeague Two
  • 22 August 2015Mansfield Town 1–1 Oxford UnitedLeague Two
  • 21 February 2015Oxford United 3–0 Mansfield TownLeague Two
  • 16 August 2014Mansfield Town 2–1 Oxford UnitedLeague Two

Leading scorers: Mansfield Town and Oxford United

Mansfield Town

GoalsAssists

  • M. Smith62

Oxford United

GoalsAssists

  • M. Harris61
  • G. O'Donkor42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mansfield Town and Oxford United drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Oxford United at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Luka Lynch 34' for Oxford United, Michael Smith 82' for Mansfield Town. Sent off: Peter Kioso (Oxford United) 75', Gatlin O Donkor (Oxford United) 84'. On expected goals it finished 3.42–0.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mansfield Town a 12.0% chance to finish in the top four: 13.8% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 9.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 12.3%.

For Oxford United the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 52.6% going in: 58.2% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 47.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 52.0%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.