15 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Caen vs La Roche VF Ligue 3 prediction & result

Caen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Caen 2-1 La Roche VF.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Caen, 26% draw, 36% La Roche VF — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Caen at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Caen95%Draw5%La Roche VF0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Z. Bagbema
20'
21'
M. Samb
43'
⚽M. Sambassist: M. Mahop
L. Carole
51'
🔁H. Saivetout: F. Bomo
56'
🔁I. Botellaout: K. Portut
56'
57'
🔁M. Vrignonout: K. Bensoula
🔁J. Kimbomaout: M. Hafid
64'
🔁A. Gnanduilletout: M. Daffot
64'
65'
🔁A. Araujoout: D. Bangoura
🔁Z. Bagbemaout: I. Aissaoui
77'
82'
🔁J. Beaulieuout: E. Gassama
82'
🔁H. Lamyout: T. Renaudineau
⚽M. Daffotassist: L. Carole
83'
⚽K. Portut
88'

Form going into Caen vs La Roche VF

Caen

Ligue 3

  • L2-3away to Fleury 913 October 2026
  • W3-2Rouen24 September 2026

La Roche VF

Ligue 3

  • W3-1Aubagne3 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Caen127142215+722
1La Roche VF128311910+927

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Caen beat La Roche VF 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Caen at 38%. The goals: M. Samb 43' for La Roche VF, M. Daffot 83' for Caen, K. Portut 88' for Caen.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Caen a 19.8% chance to finish in the top four: 24.4% after a win, 17.8% after a draw, 14.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.4%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

For La Roche VF the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 68.3% going in: 75.7% after a win, 69.3% after a draw, 62.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.6%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Caen v La Roche VF has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is La Roche VF's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Caen win38%▼ −1
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. La Roche VF win36%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.