15 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice I Liga prediction & result

Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce
Referee: D. Krumplewski
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Pogoń Siedlce 1-3 Puszcza Niepołomice.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Pogoń Siedlce, 33% draw, 29% Puszcza Niepołomice — fair odds of 2.63, 3.03 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pogoń Siedlce at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Marzec
27'
S. Kobusinski
33'
40'
🔁K. Przybylkoout: F. Szabaciuk
🔁M. Marzecout: D. Szuprytowski
46'
48'
⚽A. Gjoni
51'
O. Korczakowski
F. Kendzia
53'
57'
O. Kocar
60'
🔁O. Gerstensteinout: A. Trubeha
61'
🔁O. Korczakowskiout: M. Cholewiak
🔁S. Kobusinskiout: N. Zielonka
62'
🔁B. Poczobutout: R. Makowski
62'
67'
⚽M. Cholewiakassist: F. Nascimento
76'
⚽M. Strajnarassist: M. Cholewiak
🔁J. Barczakout: D. Jakubik
77'
🔁E. Dzieciolout: P. Klimek
77'
⚽O. Kocar (OG)
78'
80'
W. Kaminski
85'
A. Piekarski
85'
🔁W. Kaminskiout: B. Kurzeja
85'
🔁A. Gjoniout: K. Iwao

Line-ups

Pogoń Siedlce
  • 57J. Lemanowicz
  • 27J. Barczak
  • 26F. Kendzia
  • 4P. Szur
  • 2K. Mis
  • 31E. Dzieciol
  • 16B. Poczobut
  • 21S. Kobusinski
  • 17M. Marzec
  • 56C. Demianiuk
  • 9M. Rosolek
Substitutes
  • 1J. Tomkiel
  • 6M. Kizyma
  • 7D. Szuprytowski
  • 10R. Makowski
  • 14D. Jakubik
  • 22P. Klimek
  • 29L. Trepka
  • 72S. Szczytniewski
  • 95N. Zielonka
Coach: Adam Nocon
Puszcza Niepołomice
  • 1F. Andrzejczak
  • 23K. Przybylko
  • 2K. Kasolik
  • 6O. Kocar
  • 33M. Strajnar
  • 8F. Nascimento
  • 34A. Piekarski
  • 77W. Kaminski
  • 21O. Gerstenstein
  • 11O. Korczakowski
  • 9A. Gjoni
Substitutes
  • 13F. Jaworski
  • 10M. Cholewiak
  • 14F. Szabaciuk
  • 53A. Trubeha
  • 64K. Wolowiec
  • 17K. Iwao
  • 97W. Kowal
  • 99B. Kurzeja
  • 28I. Pieprzyca
Coach: Tomasz Tulacz

Form going into Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Pogoń Siedlce

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Podbeskidzie9 October 2026

Puszcza Niepołomice

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Polonia Bytom11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Pogoń Siedlce145451717019
16Puszcza Niepołomice144281620-414

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice

  • 6 March 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 3–0 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
  • 24 August 2025Pogoń Siedlce 0–0 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga

The result against the call

Puszcza Niepołomice won 3–1 at Pogoń Siedlce. The model had leaned towards a win for Pogoń Siedlce at 38% and given a win for Puszcza Niepołomice 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Gjoni 48' for Puszcza Niepołomice, M. Cholewiak 67' for Puszcza Niepołomice, M. Strajnar 76' for Puszcza Niepołomice, O. Kocar (own goal) 78' for Pogoń Siedlce.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pogoń Siedlce a 21.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.5% after a win, 23.0% after a draw, 27.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.7%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.

For Puszcza Niepołomice the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 47.8% going in: 38.5% after a win, 47.9% after a draw, 54.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.5%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.