31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana 1. SNL prediction & result

Ljudski vrt, Maribor
Referee: M. Antic
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Maribor 0-1 Olimpija Ljubljana.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Maribor, 28% draw, 28% Olimpija Ljubljana — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Maribor at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Maribor0%Draw4%Olimpija Ljubljana96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

56'
⚽I. Tuci
59'
M. Cuni
Z. Karnicnik
62'
🔁Z. Repasout: D. Vizinger
62'
🔁N. Viherout: Z. Jevsenak
63'
69'
🔁A. Marinout: D. Mitrovski
75'
L. Perea
75'
🔁L. Zahovicout: B. Feta
77'
79'
🔁M. Cuniout: M. Brest
🔁C. Goncalvesout: A. Reghba
88'
90+2'
🔁I. Tuciout: F. Rose
90+3'
M. Vidovsek
T. Cipot
90+4'

Form going into Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Maribor

1. SNL

  • L0-4away to Koper27 October 2026
  • D0-0Celje18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 October 2026

Olimpija Ljubljana

1. SNL

  • D1-1Celje28 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Aluminij16 October 2026
  • D3-3Mura10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Maribor156632216+624
4Olimpija Ljubljana156541713+423

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana

  • 15 August 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 1–1 Maribor1. SNL
  • 9 May 2026Maribor 0–3 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
  • 8 March 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 0–0 Maribor1. SNL
  • 23 November 2025Maribor 1–1 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
  • 31 August 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Maribor1. SNL
  • 3 May 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–2 Maribor1. SNL

The result against the call

Olimpija Ljubljana won 1–0 at Maribor. The model had leaned towards a win for Maribor at 44% and given a win for Olimpija Ljubljana 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: I. Tuci 56' for Olimpija Ljubljana.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Maribor a 84.3% chance to finish in the top four: 89.2% after a win, 83.0% after a draw, 79.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.2%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

For Olimpija Ljubljana the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 59.4% going in: 68.6% after a win, 60.6% after a draw, 53.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.6%, 9.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Maribor v Olimpija Ljubljana has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Maribor's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Maribor win44%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Olimpija Ljubljana win28%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.