31 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice I Liga prediction & result

Polsat Plus Arena, Gdansk
Referee: P. Idzik
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Unia Skierniewice.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Lechia Gdansk, 23% draw, 19% Unia Skierniewice — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lechia Gdansk at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lechia Gdansk97%Draw3%Unia Skierniewice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽B. Bida
J. Adkonis
23'
⚽V. Blanutaassist: A. Shakh
24'
D. Beskorovaynyi
33'
40'
⚽B. Bidaassist: A. Burkiewicz
🔁T. Neugebauerout: B. Szczepankiewicz
45+2'
48'
M. Stepien
🔁J. Adkonisout: H. Ivanov
66'
🔁K. Dodajout: B. Sonko
66'
⚽V. Blanutaassist: S. Kopasek
69'
78'
🔁A. Burkiewiczout: M. Kosior
78'
🔁D. Gaskaout: L. Wolsztynski
⚽A. Shakhassist: T. Wojtowicz
84'
85'
🔁B. Bidaout: K. Kalisz
85'
🔁S. Dudekout: M. Mularczyk
88'
🔁J. Bieronskiout: K. Toporkiewicz

Form going into Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice

Lechia Gdansk

I Liga

  • L1-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice24 October 2026
  • W2-1Arka Gdynia18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026

Unia Skierniewice

I Liga

  • L1-2Polonia Bytom24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Warta Poznań16 October 2026
  • D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lechia Gdansk147162522+322
17Unia Skierniewice144282026-614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Lechia Gdansk beat Unia Skierniewice 3–2. The model had made a win for Lechia Gdansk its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: B. Bida 4' for Unia Skierniewice, V. Blanuta 24' for Lechia Gdansk, B. Bida 40' for Unia Skierniewice, V. Blanuta 69' for Lechia Gdansk, A. Shakh 84' for Lechia Gdansk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lechia Gdansk a 24.8% chance to finish in the top two: 27.2% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 18.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.2%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

For Unia Skierniewice the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 62.7% going in: 52.2% after a win, 59.8% after a draw, 66.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.0%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lechia Gdansk v Unia Skierniewice has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 65% / 21% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 58% / 23% / 19%: the biggest move is Lechia Gdansk's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Lechia Gdansk win58%▼ −7
  2. Draw23%▲ +2
  3. Unia Skierniewice win19%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.