31 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza I Liga prediction & result

Legnica
Referee: M. Kuropatwa
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Miedz Legnica 1-1 Nieciecza.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Miedz Legnica, 27% draw, 26% Nieciecza — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Miedz Legnica at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Miedz Legnica0%Draw5%Nieciecza95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽K. Zapolnikassist: D. Hilbrycht
46'
🔁S. Guerreroout: M. Drag
57'
M. Drag
🔁Z. Petrovicout: M. Mansfeld
62'
🔁D. Stanclikout: I. Maliszewski
62'
🔁W. Hajdaout: J. Serafin
76'
🔁O. Olewinskiout: M. Bochnak
77'
🔁J. Letniowskiout: I. Korczakowski
81'
86'
🔁M. Jaroszewskiout: S. Dabrowski
⚽M. Bochnakassist: M. Mansfeld
90'
90+3'
🔁I. Durdovout: O. Slawinski
A. Kovacevic
90+3'

Form going into Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza

Miedz Legnica

I Liga

  • D1-1away to Polonia Warszawa23 October 2026
  • W3-0Stal Mielec17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Odra Opole11 October 2026

Nieciecza

I Liga

  • L1-3away to Arka Gdynia24 October 2026
  • W2-0Puszcza Niepołomice19 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Unia Skierniewice10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Miedz Legnica145542013+720
6Nieciecza146442220+222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza

  • 19 May 2025Miedz Legnica 1–4 NiecieczaI Liga
  • 9 November 2024Nieciecza 1–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
  • 18 December 2023Miedz Legnica 2–2 NiecieczaI Liga
  • 29 July 2023Nieciecza 1–4 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
  • 8 May 2021Nieciecza 0–2 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
  • 15 November 2020Miedz Legnica 2–3 NiecieczaI Liga

The result against the call

Miedz Legnica and Nieciecza drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Miedz Legnica at 47% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: K. Zapolnik 3' for Nieciecza, M. Bochnak 90' for Miedz Legnica.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Miedz Legnica a 17.6% chance to finish in the top two: 20.9% after a win, 15.1% after a draw, 9.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.1%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

For Nieciecza the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 16.4% going in: 22.2% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 16.7%.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Miedz Legnica's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Miedz Legnica win47%▲ +11
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Nieciecza win26%▼ −10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.