1 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Celje vs Nafta 1. SNL prediction & result

Celje
Referee: R. Obrenovic
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Celje 4-0 Nafta.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Celje, 26% draw, 18% Nafta — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celje at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celje99%Draw1%Nafta0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
•A. Marosa
⚽M. Kvesic
37'
⚽M. Kvesic
45+1'
⚽A. Kucysassist: M. Avdyli
45+3'
46'
🔁J. Zoricaout: M. Vallejo
46'
🔁S. Omraniout: L. Pihler
🔁M. Kvesicout: M. Zabukovnik
46'
B. Verbic
56'
61'
🔁K. Lavrencicout: A. Jasaragic
61'
🔁A. Ferreiraout: L. Kambic
🔁M. Avdyliout: L. Koutris
67'
🔁B. Verbicout: V. Tusha
67'
🔁S. Seslarout: T. Letonja
67'
72'
🔁A. Marosaout: D. Bobson
🔁I. Calusicout: P. Daniel
73'
⚽A. Kucys
78'

Form going into Celje vs Nafta

Celje

1. SNL

  • D1-1away to Olimpija Ljubljana28 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Maribor18 October 2026
  • W1-0Aluminij10 October 2026

Nafta

1. SNL

  • D0-0Aluminij28 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Mura17 October 2026
  • W1-0Bravo11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Celje146531913+623
6Nafta155461921-219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celje vs Nafta

  • 15 August 2026Nafta 1–3 Celje1. SNL
  • 18 May 2025Nafta 1–6 Celje1. SNL
  • 16 March 2025Celje 3–2 Nafta1. SNL
  • 1 December 2024Nafta 0–0 Celje1. SNL
  • 15 September 2024Celje 3–1 Nafta1. SNL
  • 22 November 2023Nafta 1–1 CeljeCup

The result against the call

Celje beat Nafta 4–0. The model had made a win for Celje its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Kvesic 37' for Celje, M. Kvesic 45+1' for Celje, A. Kucys 45+3' for Celje, A. Kucys 78' for Celje.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celje a 82.8% chance to finish in the top four: 86.6% after a win, 80.7% after a draw, 73.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.6%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Nafta the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 20.4% going in: 27.0% after a win, 21.7% after a draw, 17.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.4%, 3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.