1 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Arezzo vs Ascoli Serie B prediction & result

Citta di Arezzo, Arezzo
Referee: Mattia Drigo
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Arezzo 0-0 Ascoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Arezzo, 24% draw, 57% Ascoli — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ascoli at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arezzo2%Draw92%Ascoli6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Federico Gattoni
59'
amine chakir
68'
Abdoul Guiebre
🔁Alberto Cerriout: Pietro Cianci
69'
🔁Alessandro Arenaout: Emiliano Pattarello
69'
74'
🔁Simone D'Uffiziout: Don Bolsius
74'
🔁Giovanni Corradiniout: Tommaso Milanese
74'
🔁Federico Gattoniout: Andrea Oliveri
Julian Illanes
75'
80'
🔁Gennao Acamporaout: Gabriele Gori
80'
🔁Andrea·Silipoout: Giacomo De Pieri
🔁Shaka Mawuli Ekluout: mattia sala
85'
🔁Mauro Coppolaroout: Gianmarco Ferrari
90'

Match stats — Arezzo vs Ascoli

27%Possession73%
5Shots6
2On target2
3Corners3
0.95xG0.62

Goals against chances

Arezzo0 from 0.95 xGless than the chances were worth
Ascoli0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arezzo 4-1-4-1
  • 14A. NunzianteG
  • 6A. RenziD
  • 5J. IllanesD
  • 4M. CoppolaroD
  • 37S. RighettiD
  • 78Gennaro IaccarinoM
  • 30A. ArenaM
  • 8S. MawuliM
  • 17A. IoniţăM
  • 21C. TavernelliM
  • 9A. CerriF
Substitutes
  • 71P. CianciF
  • 67Gianmarco FerrariD
  • 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneM
  • 11L. MancusoF
  • 47Aleandro ManesM
  • 2M. MenaD
  • 99M. OlivieriF
  • 10E. PattarelloF
  • 16Mattia SalaM
Coach: C. Bucchi
Ascoli 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 30M. CuradoD
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 19A. GuiébréD
  • 27M. RicciM
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 13G. AcamporaM
  • 15S. D'UffiziM
  • 9A. ChakirF
Substitutes
  • 99Matteo BrunoriF
  • 77D. BolsiusF
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 45G. CrespiG
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 35G. GoriF
  • 18L. Lo ScalzoM
  • 62T. MilaneseM
  • 3M. NicolettiD
Coach: Francesco Tomei

Form going into Arezzo vs Ascoli

Arezzo

Serie B

  • L1-2away to Carrarese28 October 2026
  • L0-3Benevento24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sampdoria18 October 2026

Ascoli

Serie B

  • W2-0Sampdoria27 October 2026
  • W6-1away to Catanzaro24 October 2026
  • D1-1Empoli17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Arezzo11326920-1111
3Ascoli11551177+1020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Ascoli

  • 30 March 2026Arezzo 1–2 AscoliSerie C - Girone B
  • 23 November 2025Ascoli 0–2 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
  • 15 March 2025Ascoli 1–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
  • 3 November 2024Arezzo 1–1 AscoliSerie C - Girone B
  • 18 August 2024Arezzo 2–1 AscoliCoppa Italia Serie C

Leading scorers: Arezzo and Ascoli

Arezzo

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

  • A. Silipo41
  • G. Gori32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arezzo and Ascoli drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Ascoli at 57% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.95–0.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arezzo a 49.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 40.4% after a win, 48.0% after a draw, 52.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 48.0%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

For Ascoli the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 56.8% going in: 60.6% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 52.0%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arezzo v Ascoli has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 27% / 30% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 19% / 24% / 57%: the biggest move is Ascoli's chance of winning, up 14 points.

  1. Arezzo win19%▼ −8
  2. Draw24%▼ −6
  3. Ascoli win57%▲ +14

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.