24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC Stars League prediction & result

Saoud bin Abdulrahman Stadium, Wakla
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Al Wakrah 3-2 Al-Arabi SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Al Wakrah, 25% draw, 45% Al-Arabi SC — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Arabi SC at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Wakrah94%Draw6%Al-Arabi SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Khatab Bauobida Ziadeh
33'
Marwan Sherif Hassan
Nabil Irfan
37'
38'
⚽Michael Olungaassist: Oussama Tannane
45'
⚽Michael Olungaassist: Isaac Lihadji
45+3'
•Michael Olunga
52'
🔁Marwan Sherif Hassanout: Issa Laye
🔁Ayoub Assalout: Mohamed Simo
62'
🔁Nabil Irfanout: Nasser Al-Yazidi
62'
⚽Nasser Al-Yazidiassist: Amine Zouhzouh
69'
81'
🔁Michael Olungaout: Lotfi Rabh Majed
81'
🔁Isaac Lihadjiout: Mohamed Khaled Gouda
⚽Amine Zouhzouhassist: Murad Naji
83'
•Gelson Dala
88'
⚽Gelson Dalaassist: Luis Alberto
88'
🔁Gelson Dalaout: Almahdi Ali
90+2'
90+3'
🔁Khatab Bauobida Ziadehout: Youssef snana
Mohamed Simo
90+6'
90+10'
•Alexis Pérez
90+11'
Alexis Pérez

Match stats — Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC

40%Possession60%
23Shots12
8On target5
9Corners6
1.21xG1.23

Goals against chances

Al Wakrah3 from 1.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Arabi SC2 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Wakrah 4-4-2
  • 99Omair Al SayedG
  • 16Nabil IrfanD
  • 3P. CalioneD
  • 2Lucas MendesD
  • 12Murad Naji HusseinD
  • 7A. AssalM
  • 93A. LaïdouniM
  • 6Omar Al OsadM
  • 10Gelson DalaM
  • 75A. ZouhzouhF
  • 18Luis AlbertoF
Substitutes
  • 26Abdollah Ali SaeiM
  • 15Almahdi AliD
  • 20Nasser Al YazidiM
  • 28Yousef El KhatibD
  • 17R. BoussafiF
  • 34Moayed HassanF
  • 5Ahmed FadelM
  • 66Mohamed SimoD
  • 19Tamer SeyamF
Coach: J. Sierra
Al-Arabi SC 4-2-3-1
  • 31Jasem Al HailG
  • 22K. BauobidaD
  • 5SimoD
  • 25A. PérezD
  • 2Marwan HassanD
  • 8Ahmed FathiM
  • 17J. VeretoutM
  • 6O. TannaneM
  • 7Pablo SarabiaM
  • 80I. LihadjiM
  • 14M. OlungaF
Substitutes
  • 15Faisal Al ObaidliM
  • 9Mohamed GoudaF
  • 11Lotfi MadjerF
  • 20A. MahajnaD
  • 44Hassan MohamadM
  • 98J. MonegalM
  • 30Salem Al HajriM
  • 90Y. SnanaF
  • 16Salem RedaM
Coach: C. Contra

Form going into Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC

Al Wakrah

Stars League

  • W3-0away to Al Ahli Doha16 October 2026
  • W3-2Al-Gharafa8 October 2026

Al-Arabi SC

Stars League

  • W6-0away to Al Shahaniya16 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Al Sadd9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Al Wakrah93241419-511
4Al-Arabi SC93511810+814

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC

  • 7 January 2026Al Wakrah 0–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
  • 2 September 2025Al Wakrah 1–3 Al-Arabi SCQSL Cup
  • 15 August 2025Al-Arabi SC 2–2 Al WakrahStars League
  • 24 January 2025Al Wakrah 4–3 Al-Arabi SCStars League
  • 17 August 2024Al-Arabi SC 1–1 Al WakrahStars League
  • 5 April 2024Al Wakrah 2–4 Al-Arabi SCStars League

Leading scorers: Al Wakrah and Al-Arabi SC

Al Wakrah

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bounedjah40

Al-Arabi SC

GoalsAssists

  • Pablo Sarabia60
  • O. Tannane33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Wakrah beat Al-Arabi SC 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Arabi SC at 45% and given a win for Al Wakrah 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Michael Olunga 38' for Al-Arabi SC, Michael Olunga 45' for Al-Arabi SC, Nasser Al-Yazidi 69' for Al Wakrah, Amine Zouhzouh 83' for Al Wakrah, Gelson Dala 88' for Al Wakrah. Sent off: Alexis Pérez (Al-Arabi SC) 90+11'. On expected goals it finished 1.21–1.23.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Wakrah a 17.4% chance to finish in the top four: 34.3% after a win, 13.6% after a draw, 6.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.3%, 16.9 points higher than before the match.

For Al-Arabi SC the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 79.4% going in: 93.3% after a win, 79.1% after a draw, 61.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.9%, 17.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Wakrah v Al-Arabi SC has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 30% / 25% / 45%: the biggest move is Al-Arabi SC's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Al Wakrah win30%▼ −4
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Al-Arabi SC win45%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.