Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners A-League prediction & result
Final score: Wellington Phoenix 2-0 Central Coast Mariners.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Wellington Phoenix, 25% draw, 36% Central Coast Mariners — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Wellington Phoenix at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
Line-ups
- 13Henry GrayG
- 27Matthew SheridanD
- 28Bill TuilomaD
- 18Lukas Kelly-HealdD
- 23James McGarryD
- 7Bryce DukeM
- 8Max AndersonM
- 14Alex RuferM
- 25Kazuki NagasawaM
- 99Corban PiperF
- 9Rafael DuranF
- 11Riley BidoisF
- 17Nathan WalkerF
- 35Luke MitchellM
- 30Alby Kelly-HealdG
- 24Tze-xuan LokeF
- 34Dylan GardinerD
- 5Walter ScottD
- 30Andrew RedmayneG
- 51Ty MckibbinD
- 3Diesel HerringtonD
- 12Noah MccannD
- 5Lucas MauragisD
- 8Chris DonnellM
- 72Ali AuglahM
- 37Bailey BrandtmanM
- 6Haine EamesM
- 39Alexander BoltonM
- 9Oliver LavaleF
- 22Arthur De LimaM
- 45Jesse MantellM
- 41Shumba MutokoyiD
- 43Luke BecvinovskiF
- 42Max NaylorF
- 50Jai AjanovicG
- 46Callum McCaskeyD
Form going into Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
Wellington Phoenix
A-League
- W2-1Melbourne Victory18 October 2026
Central Coast Mariners
A-League
- D2-2Newcastle Jets17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
- 21 December 2025Wellington Phoenix 3–1 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 2 November 2025Central Coast Mariners 1–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 25 January 2025Wellington Phoenix 0–0 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 10 November 2024Central Coast Mariners 0–3 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 6 October 2024Central Coast Mariners 2–1 Wellington PhoenixFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2024Central Coast Mariners 2–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
Leading scorers: Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners
Wellington Phoenix
GoalsAssists
- C. Piper30
- R. Bidois20
- N. Walker11
Central Coast Mariners
GoalsAssists
- O. Lavale30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wellington Phoenix beat Central Coast Mariners 2–0. The model had made a win for Wellington Phoenix its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: R. Duran 55' for Wellington Phoenix, C. Piper 57' for Wellington Phoenix.
How the call on Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 36% / 25% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 25% / 36%: the biggest move is Wellington Phoenix's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Wellington Phoenix win39%▲ +3
- Draw25%=
- Central Coast Mariners win36%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.