5 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

Metz vs Rodez Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Metz 4-1 Rodez.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Metz, 26% draw, 22% Rodez — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Metz at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Metz99%Draw1%Rodez0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Pape Moussa Fallassist: Florian Miguel
8'
Jean Ruiz
24'
35'
⚽Corentin Issanchou Roubiouassist: Kenny Nagera
⚽Jessy Deminguetassist: Teji Savanier
39'
⚽Pape Moussa Fall
42'
🔁Jean Ruizout: Urie-Michel Mboula
45'
🔁Florian Miguelout: Maxime Colin
45'
⚽Pape Moussa Fallassist: Jessy Deminguet
58'
Giorgi Abuashvili
62'
🔁Jessy Deminguetout: Nampalys Mendy
66'
68'
🔁Damjan Pavlovićout: Mathis Saka
68'
🔁Octave Jolyout: Antonin Cartillier
🔁Giorgi Abuashviliout: Hamza Kadamani
74'
74'
🔁Mathis Touhoout: Nachon Nsingi
🔁Teji Savanierout: Abdoulaye Agne Ba
78'
78'
🔁Corentin Issanchou Roubiouout: Ryan Ponti
78'
🔁Kenny Nageraout: Kelian Nsona

Match stats — Metz vs Rodez

57%Possession43%
18Shots18
8On target6
7Corners7

Line-ups

Metz 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. FischerG
  • 70B. SarrD
  • 42C. DevenishD
  • 5J. RuizD
  • 3F. MiguelD
  • 8J. DeminguetM
  • 18B. MunongoM
  • 9G. AbuashviliM
  • 10T. SavanierM
  • 21J. PandoreM
  • 11P. M. FallF
Substitutes
  • 61P. SyG
  • 2M. ColinD
  • 4M. MboulaD
  • 98I. MohamedD
  • 6N. MendyM
  • 88A. BaF
  • 33A. MbodjiF
  • 38H. KadamaniM
  • 22N. MbalaF
Coach: Luc Holtz
Rodez 5-3-2
  • 16L. MargueronG
  • 13C. IssanchouD
  • 24L. Laurent
  • 4M. MagninD
  • 3R. LipinskiD
  • 15E. Jean-LambertD
  • 6J. MendesM
  • 8D. PavlovicM
  • 22O. JolyM
  • 7K. NageraF
  • 11M. TouhoF
Substitutes
  • 30E. CrombezG
  • 17D. Vangi
  • 29A. Cartillier
  • 28S. LuyambulaD
  • 10M. SakaM
  • 20R. PontiD
  • 21K. NsonaM
  • 27M. EssimiF
  • 9N. NsingiF
Coach: Didier Santini

Form going into Metz vs Rodez

Metz

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
  • D1-1Laval22 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Grenoble14 August 2026
  • W2-1Guingamp8 August 2026

Rodez

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2PAU28 August 2026
  • W5-2away to Nantes22 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Annecy14 August 2026
  • W3-1Laval8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Metz went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Metz failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Metz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rodez conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Rodez scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Rodez had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Metz124532019+117
13Rodez124171723-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Metz vs Rodez

  • 2 May 2025Metz 3–3 RodezLigue 2
  • 23 August 2024Rodez 1–3 MetzLigue 2
  • 31 January 2023Metz 1–1 RodezLigue 2
  • 30 August 2022Rodez 1–4 MetzLigue 2

Leading scorers: Metz and Rodez

Metz

GoalsAssists

  • P. Fall81
  • J. Deminguet33

Rodez

GoalsAssists

  • I. Baldé50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Metz beat Rodez 4–1. The model had made a win for Metz its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Pape Moussa Fall 8' for Metz, Corentin Issanchou Roubiou 35' for Rodez, Jessy Deminguet 39' for Metz, Pape Moussa Fall 42' for Metz, Pape Moussa Fall 58' for Metz.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.