Metz vs Saint Etienne Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Metz 2-2 Saint Etienne.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Metz, 26% draw, 25% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Metz at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Metz vs Saint Etienne
Line-ups
- 1J. FischerG
- 70B. SarrD
- 42C. DevenishD
- 5J. RuizD
- 3F. MiguelD
- 8J. DeminguetM
- 18B. MunongoM
- 9G. AbuashviliM
- 10T. SavanierM
- 38H. KadamaniM
- 11P. FallF
- 4U. MboulaD
- 6N. MendyM
- 88A. Agne BaF
- 22N. MbalaF
- 98I. MohamedD
- 21J. PandoreF
- 61P. SyG
- 39B. SongD
- 33Abdourahmane MbodjF
- 30G. LarsonneurG
- 23K. PedroD
- 26J. Le CardinalD
- 18S. NairD
- 11B. OldD
- 20A. BoakyeM
- 6M. BernauerM
- 14Á. CsongvaiM
- 8T. BalloM
- 7I. CardonaF
- 10J. BreumF
- 31N. El JamaliM
- 13João FerreiraD
- 37N. Kasia NkondoD
- 15Chico LambaD
- 1Mamour NdiayeG
- 16T. SvetlinM
- 17J. DuffusF
- 32Adam BaallalM
- 22Z. DavitashviliF
Form going into Metz vs Saint Etienne
Metz
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
- D1-1Laval22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Grenoble14 August 2026
Saint Etienne
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Dunkerque12 September 2026
- W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
- W4-0Grenoble22 August 2026
- W3-1Clermont Foot14 August 2026
What these results say
- Metz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Metz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Metz had two goals or fewer.
- Saint Etienne scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Saint Etienne had three goals or more.
- Saint Etienne won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Metz | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Metz vs Saint Etienne
- 2 June 2024Metz 2–2 Saint EtienneLigue 1
- 30 May 2024Saint Etienne 2–1 MetzLigue 1
- 22 April 2023Saint Etienne 1–3 MetzLigue 2
- 7 November 2022Metz 3–2 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 6 March 2022Saint Etienne 1–0 MetzLigue 1
Leading scorers: Metz and Saint Etienne
Metz
GoalsAssists
- P. Fall81
- J. Deminguet33
Saint Etienne
GoalsAssists
- I. Cardona65
- A. Boakye63
- T. Ballo52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Metz and Saint Etienne drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Metz at 49% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Pedro 67' for Saint Etienne, Augustine Boakye 71' for Saint Etienne, Abdourahmane Mbodj 79' for Metz, Jessy Deminguet 89' for Metz.
How the call on Metz v Saint Etienne has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is Metz's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Metz win49%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Saint Etienne win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.