30 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Allianz Field, Saint Paul
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Minnesota United FC 3-3 Orlando City SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Minnesota United FC, 26% draw, 32% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Minnesota United FC at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Minnesota United FC96%Draw4%Orlando City SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽D. Dike
Anthony Markanich
31'
🔁D. Callenderout: A. Smir
46'
53'
Antoine Griezmann
59'
🔁J. Gerbetout: Luis Otavio
59'
🔁D. Dikeout: H. Sarajian
64'
⚽A. Griezmannassist: J. Ellis
Michael Boxall
66'
⚽M. Caldeiraassist: K. Yeboah
71'
🔁M. Caldeiraout: N. Triantis
72'
🔁W. Trappout: M. Gonzalez
72'
73'
🔁J. Ellisout: T. Spicer
⚽A. Markanichassist: J. Pereyra
74'
⚽K. Yeboah
75'
81'
🔁Z. Taifiout: M. Ojeda
81'
🔁E. Atuestaout: M. Pasalic
🔁K. Yeboahout: T. Chancalay
85'
90+2'
Marco Pašalić
🔁J. Pereyraout: C. Harvey
90+2'
90'
⚽T. Spicerassist: A. Griezmann

Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC

43%Possession57%
21Shots6
9On target5
8Corners1
3.58xG1.25

Goals against chances

Minnesota United FC3 from 3.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Orlando City SC3 from 1.25 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2
  • 12D. CallenderG
  • 28J. DiazD
  • 15M. BoxallD
  • 23M. DugganD
  • 3K. DuncanM
  • 30O. GeneM
  • 20W. TrappM
  • 13A. MarkanichM
  • 26J. PereyraF
  • 22M. CaldeiraF
  • 9K. YeboahF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SmirG
  • 5N. RomeroD
  • 2D. PadelfordD
  • 67C. HarveyM
  • 16A. JacksonM
  • 25N. TriantisD
  • 8T. ChancalayF
  • 18M. GonzalezF
  • 29M. DiengF
Coach: Cameron Knowles
Orlando City SC 4-4-2
  • 71M. CrepeauG
  • 24G. DorseyD
  • 4D. BrekaloD
  • 6R. JanssonD
  • 19Z. TaifiD
  • 22J. EllisM
  • 20E. AtuestaM
  • 35J. GerbetM
  • 77I. AnguloM
  • 9D. DikeF
  • 7A. GriezmannF
Substitutes
  • 12J. OteroG
  • 57Iago TeodoroD
  • 16W. CartagenaM
  • 10M. OjedaM
  • 5Luis OtavioM
  • 87M. PasalicF
  • 11TiagoF
  • 14T. SpicerF
  • 23H. SarajianF
Coach: Oscar Pareja

Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC

Minnesota United FC

All competitions we cover

  • W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
  • L1-2Atlanta United FC20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
  • D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
  • D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026

Orlando City SC

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Real Salt Lake22 August 2026
  • L1-2Chicago Fire19 August 2026
  • D1-1FC Cincinnati15 August 2026
  • L2-3away to New York Red Bulls1 August 2026
  • W1-0Nashville SC25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Minnesota United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Minnesota United FC341111125658-244
8Orlando City SC34137146378-1546

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC

  • 10 March 2024Orlando City SC 2–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 16 April 2023Minnesota United FC 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 1 February 2023Orlando City SC 2–0 Minnesota United FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 April 2021Orlando City SC 3–2 Minnesota United FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 August 2020Orlando City SC 3–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 18 August 2019Minnesota United FC 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Orlando City SC

Minnesota United FC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Yeboah184

Orlando City SC

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ojeda164
  • A. Griezmann147

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Minnesota United FC and Orlando City SC drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Minnesota United FC at 42% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Dike 28' for Orlando City SC, A. Griezmann 64' for Orlando City SC, M. Caldeira 71' for Minnesota United FC, A. Markanich 74' for Minnesota United FC, K. Yeboah 75' for Minnesota United FC, T. Spicer 90' for Orlando City SC. On expected goals it finished 3.58–1.25.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.