30 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result

Shell Energy Stadium, Houston
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Houston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Houston Dynamo, 24% draw, 21% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Houston Dynamo at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Houston Dynamo5%Draw92%San Jose Earthquakes3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

58'
Reid Roberts
🔁F. Negriout: I. Aliyu
61'
69'
🔁D. Romneyout: M. Floriani
73'
🔁B. Lerouxout: N. Fernandez
73'
🔁P. Marieout: P. Judd
🔁H. Herreraout: D. McGuire
75'
82'
🔁J. Rickettsout: J. Jasinski
🔁Felipe Andradeout: D. Holmes
83'
🔁J. McGlynnout: A. Bouzat
90+1'
90+1'
🔁E. Lowenout: Vitor Costa
90+1'
🔁N. Tsakirisout: I. Harkes

Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

42%Possession58%
10Shots11
0On target4
7Corners4
0.7xG1.33

Goals against chances

Houston Dynamo0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth
San Jose Earthquakes0 from 1.33 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo 4-3-3
  • 31J. BondG
  • 36Felipe AndradeD
  • 3Antonio CarlosD
  • 34A. ReschD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 8J. McGlynnM
  • 6ArturM
  • 16H. HerreraM
  • 11L. EnnaliF
  • 19M. BoguszF
  • 20GuilhermeF
Substitutes
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 28E. SviatchenkoD
  • 13S. VinesD
  • 18D. SamassekouM
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 17N. MarkanichF
  • 23D. McGuireF
  • 24I. AliyuF
Coach: Ben Olsen
San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 18R. RobertsD
  • 3P. MarieM
  • 14R. VieiraM
  • 34B. LerouxM
  • 2J. RickettsM
  • 10N. TsakirisF
  • 23E. LowenF
  • 7O. BoudaF
Substitutes
  • 31F. MontaliG
  • 87Vitor CostaD
  • 17J. JasinskiD
  • 25M. FlorianiD
  • 16J. SkahanM
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 19P. JuddF
  • 9L. JovanovicF
Coach: Bruce Arena

Form going into Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to St. Louis City23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Vancouver Whitecaps20 August 2026
  • W1-0Los Angeles Galaxy16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to New England Revolution8 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy20 August 2026
  • L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
  • D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Houston Dynamo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Houston Dynamo won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Houston Dynamo34149114343051
4San Jose Earthquakes341410105751+652

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

  • 24 August 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 25 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes 3–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 18 July 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 31 March 2024Houston Dynamo 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 22 June 2023Houston Dynamo 4–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 2 April 2023San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd172

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Houston Dynamo at 55% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.70–1.33.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.