San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 3-1 Los Angeles Galaxy.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% San Diego, 24% draw, 18% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
San Diego at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1dos Santos CJG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5K. Sargeant
- 20A. GodoyM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 8O. ValakariF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 3D. ThorhallssonD
- 25I. PilcherD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 9L. MorganF
- 70A. Alvarado JrF
- 19D. VazquezM
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 77A. MightenF
- 1N. MicovicG
- 26H. MillerD
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 3J. AudeD
- 15J. HaakM
- 16I. ParenteM
- 28J. PaintsilM
- 18M. ReusM
- 11H. LozanoM
- 7K. FuruhashiF
- 41S. ConlonG
- 14J. NelsonD
- 25C. GarcesD
- 27E. ThommyM
- 24R. RamosF
- 6S. RobertoM
- 88M. VanneyM
- 76T. ElgersmaM
- 21R. TaylorM
Form going into San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy
San Diego
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Colorado Rapids23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Portland Timbers20 August 2026
- W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
- W1-0San Jose Earthquakes20 August 2026
- L0-1away to Houston Dynamo16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Dallas2 August 2026
- D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes26 July 2026
What these results say
- San Diego scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 38 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 24 May 2025San Diego 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 24 February 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
San Diego beat Los Angeles Galaxy 3–1. The model had made a win for San Diego its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Achouri 11' for San Diego, K. Sargeant 48' for San Diego, H. Lozano 55' for Los Angeles Galaxy, A. Pellegrino 70' for San Diego. Sent off: Jeppe Tverskov (San Diego) 50'. On expected goals it finished 2.76–0.84.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.