Mirassol vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Mirassol, 29% draw, 33% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mirassol at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mirassol vs Palmeiras
Mirassol
- D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
Palmeiras
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Palmeiras
- 15 March 2026Palmeiras 1–0 MirassolSerie A
- 17 January 2026Palmeiras 1–0 MirassolPaulista - A1
- 9 November 2025Mirassol 2–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 16 July 2025Palmeiras 1–1 MirassolSerie A
- 23 February 2025Mirassol 2–3 PalmeirasPaulista - A1
- 24 February 2024Palmeiras 3–1 MirassolPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Palmeiras
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.