Mirassol vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Mirassol, 29% draw, 33% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Mirassol at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mirassol vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34Joao VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 27DenilsonM
- 25Neto Moura
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 33EduardoM
- 77AlessonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 12Victor LuisD
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 18EliasD
- 55G. CazonattiM
- 10Chico KimM
- 7ShaylonM
- 5JapaM
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 15G. GomezD
- 26MuriloD
- 18MauricioM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 56Arthur GabrielM
- 42J. LopezF
- 7Felipe AndersonF
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 12KhellvenD
- 66Andre LucasD
- 32E. MartinezM
- 50Luis PachecoM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 48LarsonM
- 37Riquelme Fillipi
Form going into Mirassol vs Palmeiras
Mirassol
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
- L1-5Flamengo16 August 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro9 August 2026
- W2-1Remo29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Vasco da Gama25 July 2026
Palmeiras
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
- D0-0Internacional9 August 2026
- W4-0away to Vitoria30 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
What these results say
- Mirassol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Mirassol.
- Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mirassol | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 41 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Palmeiras
- 15 March 2026Palmeiras 1–0 MirassolSerie A
- 17 January 2026Palmeiras 1–0 MirassolPaulista - A1
- 9 November 2025Mirassol 2–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 16 July 2025Palmeiras 1–1 MirassolSerie A
- 23 February 2025Mirassol 2–3 PalmeirasPaulista - A1
- 24 February 2024Palmeiras 3–1 MirassolPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Palmeiras
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López107
- Maurício101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mirassol and Palmeiras drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mirassol at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. Sent off: Arthur Gabriel (Palmeiras) 90+8'. On expected goals it finished 0.75–1.52.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.