30 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Corinthians vs Santos Serie A prediction & result

Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Corinthians 0-1 Santos.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Corinthians, 29% draw, 29% Santos — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Corinthians at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Corinthians0%Draw5%Santos95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Álvaro Barreal
20'
Willian Arão
24'
🔁Gustavo Henriqueout: C. Oliva
Gabriel Paulista
31'
33'
⚽C. Oliva
Raniele
45+4'
Rodrigo Garro
45+2'
45+4'
Lucas Veríssimo
🔁Allanout: Pedro Raul
64'
66'
🔁Gabriel Bontempoout: Rony
73'
🔁Gabriel Barbosaout: B. Rollheiser
73'
🔁A. Barrealout: D. Fernandes
🔁Dieguinhoout: Gui Negao
77'
🔁Ranieleout: M. Pereira
84'

Match stats — Corinthians vs Santos

62%Possession38%
18Shots8
2On target4
8Corners1
0.85xG1.16

Goals against chances

Corinthians0 from 0.85 xGless than the chances were worth
Santos1 from 1.16 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Corinthians 4-2-3-1
  • 1Hugo SouzaG
  • 2MatheuzinhoD
  • 3Gabriel PaulistaD
  • 13Gustavo HenriqueD
  • 21Matheus BiduD
  • 29AllanM
  • 14RanieleM
  • 37Kaio CesarM
  • 8R. GarroM
  • 61DieguinhoM
  • 10M. DepayF
Substitutes
  • 51KaueG
  • 26F. AngileriD
  • 20P. MilansD
  • 46HugoD
  • 4Joao PedroD
  • 55I. MachadoD
  • 23M. PereiraM
  • 80Alex SantanaM
  • 35Charles RigonM
Coach: Fernando Diniz
Santos 4-2-3-1
  • 77Gabriel BrazaoG
  • 18Igor ViniciusD
  • 4Lucas VerissimoD
  • 14Luan PeresD
  • 31G. EscobarD
  • 48Gustavo HenriqueM
  • 15Willian AraoM
  • 8Gabriel BontempoM
  • 10NeymarM
  • 22A. BarrealM
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
Substitutes
  • 1DiogenesG
  • 38Rafael GonzagaD
  • 26Joao AnaniasD
  • 81S. PierriM
  • 30MiguelitoM
  • 16ThacianoM
  • 28C. OlivaM
  • 17G. CaballeroF
  • 32B. RollheiserF
Coach: Cuca

Form going into Corinthians vs Santos

Corinthians

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
  • L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to RB Bragantino9 August 2026
  • D0-0Atletico Paranaense30 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Bahia26 July 2026

Santos

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
  • L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Sao Paulo29 July 2026
  • D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Corinthians failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Santos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Santos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Corinthians34910153642-637
9Santos341211115049+147

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Santos

  • 15 March 2026Santos 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 22 January 2026Santos 1–1 CorinthiansPaulista - A1
  • 16 October 2025Santos 3–1 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 18 May 2025Corinthians 1–0 SantosSerie A
  • 9 March 2025Corinthians 2–1 SantosPaulista - A1
  • 13 February 2025Corinthians 2–1 SantosPaulista - A1

The full Corinthians vs Santos record →

Leading scorers: Corinthians and Santos

Corinthians

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Santos

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Barbosa154
  • Neymar83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Santos won 1–0 at Corinthians. The model had leaned towards a win for Corinthians at 42% and given a win for Santos 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: C. Oliva 33' for Santos. On expected goals it finished 0.85–1.16.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.