Flamengo vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 3-0 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Flamengo, 28% draw, 29% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Flamengo at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Botafogo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 3Leo OrtizD
- 4Leo PereiraD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 21JorginhoM
- 7Luiz AraujoM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 42A. da Silva VenturaG
- 49Dyogo AlvesG
- 13DaniloD
- 2G. VarelaD
- 61Joao SouzaD
- 77J. GoesD
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 99LorranM
- 20Lucas PaquetaM
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 34G. JustinoD
- 21MarcalD
- 2VitinhoM
- 75HuguinhoM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 13Alex TellesM
- 88EdenilsonF
- 10A. MontoroF
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 17WarlesonG
- 62CleberG
- 33L. MonzonD
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 25AllanM
- 6C. MedinaM
- 91D. AndradeM
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 7Junior SantosF
Form going into Flamengo vs Botafogo
Flamengo
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Cruzeiro22 August 2026
- W5-1away to Mirassol16 August 2026
- W2-0Vitoria9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional29 July 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Atletico Paranaense24 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 August 2026
- D1-1Fluminense9 August 2026
- W3-2Gremio29 July 2026
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Flamengo.
- Botafogo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Botafogo
- 14 March 2026Botafogo 0–3 FlamengoSerie A
- 15 February 2026Botafogo 1–2 FlamengoCarioca - 1
- 15 October 2025Botafogo 0–3 FlamengoSerie A
- 18 May 2025Flamengo 0–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 13 February 2025Flamengo 1–0 BotafogoCarioca - 1
- 2 February 2025Botafogo 1–3 FlamengoSupercopa do Brasil
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Botafogo
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro206
- Samuel Lino129
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Flamengo beat Botafogo 3–0. The model had made a win for Flamengo its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Samuel Lino 13' for Flamengo, Samuel Lino 86' for Flamengo, J. Carrascal 89' for Flamengo. On expected goals it finished 1.70–0.79.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.