Gremio vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Gremio, 27% draw, 30% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gremio at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gremio vs Chapecoense
Gremio
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
Chapecoense
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
- D3-3Bahia16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Gremio | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 28 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Chapecoense
- 4 July 2026Gremio 1–2 ChapecoenseFriendlies Clubs
- 16 March 2026Chapecoense 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 26 July 2022Chapecoense 0–0 GremioSerie B
- 15 April 2022Gremio 0–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 20 November 2021Chapecoense 1–3 GremioSerie A
- 9 August 2021Gremio 2–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Chapecoense
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.