30 August 2026, 21:30 UTC

Gremio vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result

Porto Alegre
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Gremio, 27% draw, 30% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gremio at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gremio99%Draw1%Chapecoense0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Walter Kannemann
-5'
15'
⚽Mauricio Garcezassist: Giovanni Augusto
⚽Gustavo Martinsassist: J. Enamorado
18'
⚽C. Pavon
28'
Marlon
40'
🔁Marlonout: Pedro Gabriel
46'
🔁J. Enamoradoout: Joao Pedro
52'
🔁M. Braithwaiteout: Carlos Vinicius
52'
55'
Eduardo Doma
⚽Gustavo Martinsassist: C. Pavon
56'
61'
🔁Bruno Matiasout: M. Carvalho
61'
🔁Mauricio Garcezout: F. Rossi
🔁Danilo Barbosaout: Bernardo Zortea
65'
71'
Bruno Pacheco
75'
🔁Bruno Pachecoout: Fernando
🔁F. Amuzuout: Tete
76'
80'
🔁Giovanni Augustoout: Enio
80'
🔁Marcinhoout: D. Borrero
Tetê
90+2'

Match stats — Gremio vs Chapecoense

53%Possession47%
12Shots32
5On target9
5Corners7
0.67xG2.81

Goals against chances

Gremio3 from 0.67 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chapecoense1 from 2.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gremio 4-1-4-1
  • 1WevertonG
  • 7C. PavonD
  • 6Gustavo MartinsD
  • 82WallaceD
  • 23MarlonD
  • 15Danilo BarbosaM
  • 99J. EnamoradoM
  • 20M. VillasantiM
  • 10F. KrovinovicM
  • 9F. AmuzuM
  • 22M. BraithwaiteF
Substitutes
  • 12Gabriel GrandoG
  • 18Joao PedroD
  • 54Pedro GabrielD
  • 4Walter KannemannD
  • 3Wagner LeonardoD
  • 40JefinhoM
  • 50Bernardo ZorteaM
  • 65RiquelmeM
  • 95Carlos ViniciusF
Coach: Luis Castro
Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
  • 98AndersonG
  • 5HeitorD
  • 21KauanD
  • 3Eduardo DomaD
  • 91Bruno PachecoD
  • 88Yago FelipeM
  • 16Bruno MatiasM
  • 7MarcinhoM
  • 10Giovanni AugustoM
  • 31Mauricio GarcezM
  • 9TulioF
Substitutes
  • 30Matheus AurelioG
  • 15Rafael ThyereD
  • 12FernandoD
  • 26EvertonD
  • 70Rubens RicoldiM
  • 80M. CarvalhoM
  • 19David AntunesM
  • 97EnioM
  • 77D. BorreroM
Coach: Lacerda Rafael

Form going into Gremio vs Chapecoense

Gremio

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
  • W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Botafogo29 July 2026
  • D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026

Chapecoense

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
  • D3-3Bahia16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Coritiba8 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Santos25 July 2026
  • L0-4Flamengo23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Gremio conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gremio failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Gremio34910153847-937
20Chapecoense3449213370-3721

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gremio vs Chapecoense

  • 4 July 2026Gremio 1–2 ChapecoenseFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 March 2026Chapecoense 1–1 GremioSerie A
  • 26 July 2022Chapecoense 0–0 GremioSerie B
  • 15 April 2022Gremio 0–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
  • 20 November 2021Chapecoense 1–3 GremioSerie A
  • 9 August 2021Gremio 2–1 ChapecoenseSerie A

The full Gremio vs Chapecoense record →

Leading scorers: Gremio and Chapecoense

Gremio

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Vinícius111

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gremio beat Chapecoense 3–1. The model had made a win for Gremio its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mauricio Garcez 15' for Chapecoense, Gustavo Martins 18' for Gremio, C. Pavon 28' for Gremio, Gustavo Martins 56' for Gremio. On expected goals it finished 0.67–2.81.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.