1 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

ML Vitebsk vs FC Minsk Premier League prediction & result

Vitebsk CSK, Vitebsk
Full time4 – 0

Final score: ML Vitebsk 4-0 FC Minsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 69% ML Vitebsk, 19% draw, 12% FC Minsk — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ML Vitebsk at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ML Vitebsk99%Draw1%FC Minsk0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Radivoj Bosićassist: Ode abdullahi
8'
Ilya Moskalenchik
8'
⚽Bassekou Diabateassist: Denilho Cleonise
11'
24'
Egor Zubovich
⚽Radivoj Bosić
32'
36'
llya Sviridenko
⚽Denilho Cleoniseassist: Bassekou Diabate
45'
45'
🔁Egor Zubovichout: Matar Dieye
45'
🔁llya Sviridenkoout: V. Dikhtievsky
🔁Ilya Moskalenchikout: Milad Mohammadi
45'
45'
🔁Gleb·Zherderout: Arseni Migdalenok
60'
🔁Aleksandr Ksenofontovout: stanislav matusevich
🔁Sergei Balanovichout: Yan Skibsky
63'
🔁Ode abdullahiout: Silas Gnaka
63'
65'
🔁Konstantin Kuchinskiyout: Honore Gomis
🔁Zakhar Volkovout: Nikita Baranok
70'
🔁Bassekou Diabateout: M. Bulanov
76'

Match stats — ML Vitebsk vs FC Minsk

65%Possession35%
26Shots4
14On target2
0Corners0

Line-ups

ML Vitebsk 4-3-3
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 23S. BalanovichD
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 6K. GomanovD
  • 45I. MoskalenchikD
  • 55V. GromykoM
  • 4A. OdeM
  • 15V. BocherovM
  • 10D. CleoniseF
  • 9B. DiabatéF
  • 12R. BosićF
Substitutes
  • 3N. BaranokD
  • 99M. BulanovF
  • 8S. GnakaM
  • 7T. IvanovF
  • 27A. MesarovićM
  • 5M. MohammadiD
  • 2Aleksey NoskoM
  • 30Pavel ShcherbachenyaG
  • 22Y. SkibskiyM
Coach: Juan Díaz
FC Minsk 3-4-3
  • 30A. GutorG
  • 79I. SviridenkoD
  • 4R. KhadarkevichD
  • 66Francisco CamposD
  • 19K. KuchinskiyM
  • 6F. AbenaM
  • 13I. AleksievichM
  • 15V. YatskevichM
  • 10G. ZherdevF
  • 17E. ZubovichF
  • 80A. KsenofontovF
Substitutes
  • 9M. DieyeF
  • 2V. DikhtievskiyD
  • 29I. DubinetsM
  • 16M. GerashchenkoG
  • 7H. GomisF
  • 88G. AbdulD
  • 22A. MakasF
  • 24S. MatusevichM
  • 8A. MigdalenokM
Coach: A. Chelyadinskiy

Form going into ML Vitebsk vs FC Minsk

ML Vitebsk

Premier League

  • L0-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.28 October 2026
  • W2-0away to FC Vitebsk24 October 2026
  • W1-0Neman18 October 2026

FC Minsk

Premier League

  • L1-3Baranovichi23 October 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Isloch Minsk R.17 October 2026
  • L0-1Torpedo Zhodino10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1ML Vitebsk2818826119+4262
9FC Minsk28105133542-735

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ML Vitebsk vs FC Minsk

  • 21 June 2026FC Minsk 2–2 ML VitebskPremier League
  • 19 October 2025ML Vitebsk 4–1 FC MinskPremier League
  • 25 May 2025FC Minsk 1–2 ML VitebskPremier League

Leading scorers: ML Vitebsk and FC Minsk

ML Vitebsk

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 61 league goals as a side.

FC Minsk

GoalsAssists

  • A. Sokol10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

ML Vitebsk beat FC Minsk 4–0. The model had made a win for ML Vitebsk its most likely outcome, at 69%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Radivoj Bosić 8' for ML Vitebsk, Bassekou Diabate 11' for ML Vitebsk, Radivoj Bosić 32' for ML Vitebsk, Denilho Cleonise 45' for ML Vitebsk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ML Vitebsk a 40.5% chance to finish top of the regular season: 47.6% after a win, 15.2% after a draw, 12.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.6%, 7.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on ML Vitebsk v FC Minsk has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 64% / 21% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 69% / 19% / 12%: the biggest move is ML Vitebsk's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. ML Vitebsk win69%▲ +5
  2. Draw19%▼ −2
  3. FC Minsk win12%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.