18 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas, Koprivnica
Referee: Duje Strukan
Full time1 – 5

Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 1-5 Dinamo Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% NK Slaven Belupo, 23% draw, 57% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 5.00, 4.35 and 1.75.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Zagreb at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Slaven Belupo0%Draw1%Dinamo Zagreb99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽Dani Rodríguezassist: Dion Drena Beljo
31'
⚽Dion Drena Beljo (pen)
🔁Filip mazarout: David Bosak
39'
40'
⚽Dion Drena Beljoassist: Mislav Oršić
⚽Jon Mersinaj
45'
🔁Lovre loncarout: Lukas Zahora
60'
🔁lovro banovecout: Leon Bošnjak
60'
60'
🔁Luka Stojkovicout: Lukas Kacavenda
60'
🔁Kirill Kravtsovout: Miha Zajc
60'
🔁Dani Rodríguezout: Iker Almena Horcajo
65'
⚽Miha Zajc
67'
🔁Dion Drena Beljoout: Smail Prevljak
71'
⚽Niko Galesicassist: Mislav Oršić
74'
🔁Josip Mišićout: Fran Topic
🔁Adeshina Adetunji out: Ljuban Crepulja
78'
🔁Josip Mitrovićout: Losika Ratshukudu
78'

Match stats — NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb

41%Possession59%
11Shots17
6On target8
5Corners2
2.19xG3.78

Goals against chances

NK Slaven Belupo1 from 2.19 xGless than the chances were worth
Dinamo Zagreb5 from 3.78 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Slaven Belupo 4-2-3-1
  • 32I. ČovićG
  • 18F. KrušeljD
  • 4D. KovačićD
  • 15J. MersinajD
  • 77I. UrataD
  • 22A. AdeshinaM
  • 17F. MažarM
  • 29Lovro LoncaricM
  • 8L. BanovecM
  • 11J. MitrovićM
  • 90I. NestorovskiF
Substitutes
  • 24L. BošnjakM
  • 21L. CrepuljaM
  • 5I. CvetkoD
  • 23A. JónssonM
  • 99F. KutlesaD
  • 2V. MeđimorecD
  • 45V. PapacF
  • 12M. PavliG
  • 14Losika RatshukuduF
Coach: S. Čabraja
Dinamo Zagreb 4-2-3-1
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 25M. ValinčićD
  • 15N. GalešićD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 27J. MišićM
  • 7Dani RodríguezM
  • 10L. StojkovićM
  • 99M. OršićM
  • 9D. BeljoF
Substitutes
  • 11A. HoxhaF
  • 44I. FilipovićG
  • 36Sergi DomínguezD
  • 23Iker AlmenaF
  • 17L. IvanušecM
  • 80L. KačavendaM
  • 14S. PrevljakF
  • 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
  • 6S. RadeljićD
Coach: Mario Kovacevic

Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb

NK Slaven Belupo

HNL

  • W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026

Dinamo Zagreb

HNL

  • L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7NK Slaven Belupo135171928-916
2Dinamo Zagreb128132815+1325

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb

  • 31 July 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 17 May 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 14 March 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 14 December 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–5 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 28 September 2025Dinamo Zagreb 4–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 10 May 2025Dinamo Zagreb 5–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL

Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and Dinamo Zagreb

NK Slaven Belupo

GoalsAssists

  • I. Nestorovski92
  • J. Mitrović32
  • L. Banovec32

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo136
  • L. Stojković32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Zagreb won 5–1 at NK Slaven Belupo. The model had made a win for Dinamo Zagreb its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Dani Rodríguez 16' for Dinamo Zagreb, Dion Drena Beljo (penalty) 31' for Dinamo Zagreb, Dion Drena Beljo 40' for Dinamo Zagreb, Jon Mersinaj 45' for NK Slaven Belupo, Miha Zajc 65' for Dinamo Zagreb, Niko Galesic 71' for Dinamo Zagreb. On expected goals it finished 2.19–3.78.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Slaven Belupo a 48.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 38.5% after a win, 47.4% after a draw, 51.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.0%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Dinamo Zagreb the question was the chance to win the league, 65.4% going in: 68.0% after a win, 63.1% after a draw, 58.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.0%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 21% / 25% / 54% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 20% / 23% / 57%: the biggest move is Dinamo Zagreb's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. NK Slaven Belupo win20%▼ −1
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Dinamo Zagreb win57%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.