6 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou
Full time1 – 2

Final score: FK Jablonec 1-2 Slovan Liberec.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% FK Jablonec, 29% draw, 34% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Jablonec at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Jablonec0%Draw5%Slovan Liberec95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Aziz Kayondo
35'
Lukáš Mašek
Lamin Jawo
45+2'
46'
🔁J. Kozeluhout: P. Dulay
46'
🔁P. Hodousout: M. Lexa
50'
⚽P. Dulayassist: J. Mikula
🔁J. Suchanout: F. Zorvan
61'
🔁J. Slamaout: J. Chramosta
61'
62'
Lukáš Masopust
67'
Milan Lexa
⚽S. Alioum
70'
71'
🔁L. Masekout: A. Buzek
71'
🔁L. Masopustout: V. Stransky
🔁S. Nebylaout: N. Okeke
75'
🔁S. Alioumout: D. Holly
76'
80'
⚽V. Kusej
🔁R. Sedlacekout: F. Vecheta
84'
87'
🔁V. Kusejout: P. Julis
Nemanja Tekijaški
88'

Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec

65%Possession35%
26Shots6
7On target3
4Corners2
2.47xG0.32

Goals against chances

FK Jablonec1 from 2.47 xGless than the chances were worth
Slovan Liberec2 from 0.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FK Jablonec 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. HanusG
  • 18M. CedidlaD
  • 4N. TekijaskiD
  • 15D. PavlovicD
  • 7V. ChanturishviliM
  • 13R. SedlacekM
  • 25S. NebylaM
  • 20J. SlamaM
  • 10J. SuchanF
  • 17S. AlioumF
  • 44L. JawoF
Substitutes
  • 99K. MihelakG
  • 57F. NovakD
  • 14D. SoucekD
  • 8F. ZorvanM
  • 24D. HollyM
  • 21M. PolidarM
  • 6N. OkekeM
  • 16H. AhlM
  • 19J. ChramostaF
Coach: Lubos Kozel
Slovan Liberec 3-4-2-1
  • 40T. KoubekG
  • 29L. HulkaD
  • 14A. DrakpeD
  • 3J. MikulaD
  • 18J. KozeluhM
  • 8L. MasopustM
  • 60F. FayeM
  • 27A. KayondoM
  • 19V. KusejF
  • 5P. HodousF
  • 9L. MasekF
Substitutes
  • 33L. PeslG
  • 47J. Musil
  • 16A. BuzekM
  • 24P. DulayM
  • 7A. SoliuM
  • 10Q. ZybaM
  • 12V. StranskyM
  • 15M. LexaM
  • 94V. BaboulaF
Coach: Branislav Fodrek

Form going into FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec

FK Jablonec

  • D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Teplice30 August 2026

Slovan Liberec

  • W2-0Hradec Králové30 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Zlin22 August 2026
  • D1-1Slavia Praha16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FK Jablonec8413108+213
2Slovan Liberec8611134+919

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec

  • 6 September 2026FK Jablonec 1–2 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 24 May 2026FK Jablonec 2–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 25 April 2026FK Jablonec 1–2 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 25 October 2025Slovan Liberec 0–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 8 March 2025FK Jablonec 0–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 5 October 2024Slovan Liberec 0–5 FK JablonecCzech Liga

Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec

FK Jablonec

  • M. Cedidla3 goals

Slovan Liberec

  • P. Dulay3 goals1 assists
  • L. Mašek3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.