Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Hradec Králové, 29% draw, 34% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Hradec Králové at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12A. ZadrazilG
- 7J. UhrincatD
- 5F. CihakD
- 25F. CechD
- 26D. HorakD
- 11S. DancakM
- 10M. van BurenM
- 16V. DaridaM
- 27D. TrubacM
- 19T. SloncikM
- 70T. CvancaraF
- 1P. VizekG
- 20M. VagnerG
- 4T. PetrasekD
- 2D. LudvicekD
- 3F. MielkeD
- 33R. AbajasD
- 30J. ChvatalM
- 9M. ValentaM
- 6E. NetoM
- 44J. SurovcikG
- 25K. HoeverD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 22L. Mbe SohD
- 30J. ZelenyD
- 28R. MacekM
- 18A. IrvingM
- 17J. MercadoM
- 10A. KarabecM
- 7J. AlcocerM
- 14J. BrunesF
- 47K. HegyiG
- 3P. KaderabekD
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 19A. SevinskyD
- 15V. VitalyosD
- 5S. EnemeM
- 31M. JurasekM
- 26P. VydraM
- 38H. SochurekM
Form going into Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha
Hradec Králové
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Zbrojovka Brno2 September 2026
- L0-2away to Slovan Liberec30 August 2026
- L1-2Panathinaikos27 August 2026
- D2-2away to Panathinaikos20 August 2026
- L0-1away to Beşiktaş13 August 2026
Sparta Praha
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
- L0-3away to Lyon11 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav8 August 2026
What these results say
- Hradec Králové did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hradec Králové conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Praha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sparta Praha had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha
- 24 May 2026Sparta Praha 2–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 15 February 2026Sparta Praha 2–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 14 September 2025Hradec Králové 2–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 9 February 2025Sparta Praha 3–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 31 August 2024Hradec Králové 0–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha
Hradec Králové
GoalsAssists
- T. Čvančara41
- T. Slončík40
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes62
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hradec Králové beat Sparta Praha 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Hradec Králové at 37%. The goals: V. Darida 10' for Hradec Králové, M. van Buren 25' for Hradec Králové, A. Karabec 36' for Sparta Praha. On expected goals it finished 1.15–1.09.
How the call on Hradec Králové v Sparta Praha has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Hradec Králové's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Hradec Králové win37%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Sparta Praha win34%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.