Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Hradec Králové, 29% draw, 34% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hradec Králové at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12A. ZadrazilG
- 7J. UhrincatD
- 5F. CihakD
- 25F. CechD
- 26D. HorakD
- 11S. DancakM
- 10M. van BurenM
- 16V. DaridaM
- 27D. TrubacM
- 19T. SloncikM
- 70T. CvancaraF
- 1P. VizekG
- 20M. VagnerG
- 4T. PetrasekD
- 2D. LudvicekD
- 3F. MielkeD
- 33R. AbajasD
- 30J. ChvatalM
- 9M. ValentaM
- 6E. NetoM
- 44J. SurovcikG
- 25K. HoeverD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 22L. Mbe SohD
- 30J. ZelenyD
- 28R. MacekM
- 18A. IrvingM
- 17J. MercadoM
- 10A. KarabecM
- 7J. AlcocerM
- 14J. BrunesF
- 47K. HegyiG
- 3P. KaderabekD
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 19A. SevinskyD
- 15V. VitalyosD
- 5S. EnemeM
- 31M. JurasekM
- 26P. VydraM
- 38H. SochurekM
Form going into Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha
Hradec Králové
- L0-1away to Zbrojovka Brno2 September 2026
- L0-2away to Slovan Liberec30 August 2026
Sparta Praha
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hradec Králové | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Sparta Praha | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha
- 6 September 2026Hradec Králové 2–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 24 May 2026Sparta Praha 2–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 15 February 2026Sparta Praha 2–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 14 September 2025Hradec Králové 2–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 9 February 2025Sparta Praha 3–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 31 August 2024Hradec Králové 0–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha
Hradec Králové
- T. Slončík3 goals
Sparta Praha
- J. Alcócer4 goals1 assists
- J. Mercado3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.