25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Viking vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result

Lyse Arena, Stavanger
Referee: Marius Lien
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Viking 3-1 Tromso.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Viking, 21% draw, 18% Tromso — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Viking at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Viking99%Draw1%Tromso0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Zlatko Tripić
5'
Joe Bell
7'
11'
🔁Troy Engseth Nyhammerout: Lars Olden Larsen
Gianni Stensness
12'
⚽Peter Christiansen
18'
⚽Henrik Heggheimassist: Kristoffer Haugen
31'
⚽Erik Botheimassist: Kristoffer Haugen
45+2'
🔁Gianni Stensnessout: Jesper Daland
45'
🔁Joe Bellout: Tobias Moi
45'
45'
🔁Sander Håvik Innværout: Isak·Dahlqvist
53'
Isak·Dahlqvist
59'
Ruben Jenssen
68'
🔁Casper Oyvannout: Vince Osuji
68'
🔁Morten Bjorloout: Jesper Andreas Grundt
68'
🔁Heine Asen Larsenout: Daniel Braut
Henrik Bjørdal
69'
🔁Peter Christiansenout: Amin Cosic
74'
🔁Henrik Falchenerout: Herman Haugen
74'
🔁Erik Botheimout: Romano Postema
80'
90+3'
⚽Jesper Andreas Grundtassist: David Edvardsson

Match stats — Viking vs Tromso

41%Possession59%
9Shots19
5On target4
4Corners6
1.16xG1.25

Goals against chances

Viking3 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Tromso1 from 1.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Viking 4-3-3
  • 1A. ØstbøG
  • 5H. HeggheimD
  • 6G. StensnessD
  • 25H. FalchenerD
  • 28K. HaugenD
  • 16H. BjørdalM
  • 8J. BellM
  • 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
  • 20P. ChristiansenF
  • 22E. BotheimF
  • 10Z. TripićF
Substitutes
  • 24Vetle AuklendD
  • 30Ľ. BelkoG
  • 19A. CosicF
  • 27J. DalandD
  • 23N. FuglestadF
  • 33J. HansenM
  • 2H. HaugenD
  • 29T. MoiM
  • 11R. PostemaF
Coach: B. Aarsheim
Tromso 5-3-2
  • 1J. HaugaardG
  • 37S. InnværD
  • 4V. SkjærvikD
  • 25C. ØyvannD
  • 30I. VådebuD
  • 29A. WarnerydD
  • 5D. EdvardssonM
  • 11R. JenssenM
  • 70M. BjørloM
  • 10T. NyhammerF
  • 22H. LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 24V. OsujiD
  • 12O. LauvliG
  • 7L. Olden LarsenF
  • 33M. JattaD
  • 17I. DahlqvistM
  • 9D. BrautF
  • 18Nicolai Arun JacobsenF
  • 8J. GrundtM
Coach: J. Vik

Form going into Viking vs Tromso

Viking

Eliteserien

  • W3-2Fredrikstad17 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Brann9 October 2026

Tromso

Eliteserien

  • D1-1KFUM Oslo18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Fredrikstad11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Viking2620246927+4262
6Tromso2611784340+340

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Viking vs Tromso

  • 20 February 2026Tromso 1–1 VikingFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 October 2025Tromso 1–3 VikingEliteserien
  • 27 April 2025Viking 4–4 TromsoEliteserien
  • 1 September 2024Tromso 2–2 VikingEliteserien
  • 5 May 2024Viking 2–1 TromsoEliteserien
  • 24 February 2024Tromso 0–1 VikingFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Viking and Tromso

Viking

GoalsAssists

  • P. Christiansen187
  • S. Kvia-Egeskog93
  • H. Heggheim73

Tromso

GoalsAssists

  • H. Larsen104
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Viking beat Tromso 3–1. The model had made a win for Viking its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Peter Christiansen 18' for Viking, Henrik Heggheim 31' for Viking, Erik Botheim 45+2' for Viking, Jesper Andreas Grundt 90+3' for Tromso. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Viking a 66.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 72.1% after a win, 58.0% after a draw, 45.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.1%, 6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Viking v Tromso has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 63% / 21% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 61% / 21% / 18%: the biggest move is Viking's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Viking win61%▼ −2
  2. Draw21%=
  3. Tromso win18%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.