8 November 2026, 01:00 UTC

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza
Referee: Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Tigres UANL 2-3 Cruz Azul.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Tigres UANL, 27% draw, 39% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cruz Azul at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tigres UANL0%Draw4%Cruz Azul96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽Nicolás Ibañezassist: Andrés Montaño
29'
José Paradela
34'
Erik Lira
Mauro Laínez
37'
⚽Juan Brunettaassist: Fernando Gorriarán
39'
🔁Rafael Guerreroout: Joaquim Pereira
45'
47'
•Luka Romero
Juan Brunetta
51'
51'
⚽Andrés Montaño (pen)
64'
🔁Luka Romeroout: Carlos Rodriguez
64'
🔁Erik Liraout: Agustín Palavecino
⚽Guillermo Martinez
65'
🔁Henrique Simeoneout: Diego Lainez
66'
🔁Diego Sánchezout: Ricardo Monreal
66'
69'
🔁Omar Camposout: Carlos Rotondi
70'
🔁Jorge Rodarteout: Willer Ditta
75'
Carlos Rotondi
77'
🔁Nicolás Ibañezout: Osinachi Ebere
78'
⚽Carlos Rotondiassist: Ángel Márquez
Fernando Gorriarán
81'
🔁Guillermo Martinezout: Rodrigo Aguirre
84'
🔁Emiliano Gómezout: Jonathan Herrera
84'
90+5'
Jesús Orozco

Match stats — Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul

55%Possession45%
19Shots18
8On target7
10Corners4
1.74xG2.17

Goals against chances

Tigres UANL2 from 1.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cruz Azul3 from 2.17 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. GuzmánG
  • 30D. SánchezD
  • 33R. GuerreroD
  • 32V. LoroñaD
  • 19M. LaínezD
  • 8F. GorriaránM
  • 5C. AraújoM
  • 34SimeoneM
  • 11J. BrunettaM
  • 9E. GómezM
  • 22G. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 192Edgar VillavicencioM
  • 29J. ContrerasF
  • 17R. AguirreF
  • 14J. GarzaD
  • 77O. HerreraF
  • 16D. LainezM
  • 21R. MonrealF
  • 28JoaquimD
  • 25F. RodríguezG
Coach: M. Vucetich
Cruz Azul 3-4-2-1
  • 23K. MierG
  • 5J. OrozcoD
  • 33G. PioviD
  • 16J. MárquezD
  • 22J. RodarteM
  • 6É. LiraM
  • 18L. RomeroM
  • 3O. CamposM
  • 20J. ParadelaM
  • 10A. MontañoM
  • 7N. IbáñezF
Substitutes
  • 11C. EbereF
  • 21G. FernándezF
  • 55R. GonzalezM
  • 1A. GudiñoG
  • 12A. MontesD
  • 2A. MozoD
  • 8A. PalavecinoM
  • 19C. RodríguezM
  • 29C. RotondiF
Coach: Joel Huiqui

Form going into Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul

Tigres UANL

Liga MX

  • L0-3away to CF Pachuca31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Pumas UNAM25 October 2026
  • L0-2Leon21 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Guadalajara Chivas17 October 2026

Cruz Azul

Liga MX

  • W2-1Leon2 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Club Queretaro26 October 2026
  • W2-1away to CF Pachuca22 October 2026
  • W5-0FC Juarez18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Tigres UANL did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Tigres UANL conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
  • Cruz Azul won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Cruz Azul scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Cruz Azul had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Tigres UANL163671725-815
1Cruz Azul1610243726+1132

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul

  • 15 February 2026Cruz Azul 2–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 7 December 2025Tigres UANL 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
  • 4 December 2025Cruz Azul 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 5 October 2025Tigres UANL 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
  • 2 May 2025Cruz Azul 1–0 Tigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League
  • 24 April 2025Tigres UANL 1–1 Cruz AzulCONCACAF Champions League

The full Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul record →

Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul

Tigres UANL

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brunetta94

Cruz Azul

GoalsAssists

  • A. Montaño65
  • N. Ibáñez63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cruz Azul won 3–2 at Tigres UANL. The model had made a win for Cruz Azul its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nicolás Ibañez 24' for Cruz Azul, Juan Brunetta 39' for Tigres UANL, Andrés Montaño (penalty) 51' for Cruz Azul, Guillermo Martinez 65' for Tigres UANL, Carlos Rotondi 78' for Cruz Azul. On expected goals it finished 1.74–2.17.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tigres UANL a 12.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.9%, 11.2 points higher than before the match.

For Cruz Azul the question was the chance to finish top of the Apertura, 22.0% going in: 34.7% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.7%, 12.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Tigres UANL's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Tigres UANL win34%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Cruz Azul win39%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.