Toluca vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Toluca 4-0 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Toluca, 23% draw, 24% Monterrey — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Toluca at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toluca vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. GonzálezG
- 17B. GarcíaD
- 13LuanD
- 25E. LópezD
- 20J. GallardoD
- 5F. RomeroM
- 35É. GutiérrezM
- 11HelinhoM
- 8N. CastroM
- 9A. VegaM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 22L. GarcíaG
- 10J. AnguloM
- 24F. ArceM
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 3A. BriseñoD
- 29J. DíazM
- 7V. GuzmánM
- 15P. PérezM
- 19S. SimónM
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChávezD
- 4V. GuzmánD
- 13C. SalcedoD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 18Cesar Garza CantuM
- 9D. RossiM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 14É. AguirreM
- 5F. AmbrízM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 22L. CárdenasG
- 11Iker Jareth Fimbres OchoaM
- 33S. MedinaD
- 21L. ReyesD
- 30J. RodríguezM
- 203A. De NigrisF
Form going into Toluca vs Monterrey
Toluca
Liga MX
- D2-2away to Club America1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Leon24 October 2026
- D2-2Club Tijuana22 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico San Luis18 October 2026
Monterrey
Liga MX
- D3-3Club Tijuana1 November 2026
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas25 October 2026
- W4-1away to Puebla22 October 2026
What these results say
- Toluca went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Toluca did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Toluca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs Monterrey
- 3 October 2026Monterrey 2–1 TolucaFriendlies Clubs
- 7 September 2026Toluca 2–0 MonterreyLeagues Cup
- 11 January 2026Monterrey 0–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 7 December 2025Toluca 3–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 4 December 2025Monterrey 1–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 25 September 2025Toluca 6–2 MonterreyLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and Monterrey
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toluca beat Monterrey 4–0. The model had made a win for Toluca its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nicolás Castro 8' for Toluca, João Paulo Dias Fernandes 23' for Toluca, João Paulo Dias Fernandes 51' for Toluca, Jesús Gallardo 90' for Toluca. Sent off: Carlos Salcedo (Monterrey) 61'. On expected goals it finished 1.11–0.42.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Toluca a 90.3% chance to finish in the top eight: 100.0% after a win, 95.2% after a draw, 65.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 9.7 points higher than before the match.
For Monterrey the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 44.9% going in: 77.3% after a win, 48.3% after a draw, 31.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.1%, 13.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Toluca v Monterrey has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 51% / 24% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is Toluca's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Toluca win53%▲ +2
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Monterrey win24%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.