6 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Vitória SC, 29% draw, 25% Casa Pia — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vitória SC at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vitória SC5%Draw93%Casa Pia2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
🔁André Gomesout: Ivan Mandic
45'
🔁Kevin Prietoout: João Pedro
57'
🔁Benjamin Pauwelsout: Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri
57'
🔁Alassana Jattaout: Henrique Araújo
Gustavo Silva
62'
62'
Ivan Mandic
🔁Alioune Ndoyeout: Arnel Jakupović
63'
Tiago Miguel Carvalho Margarido
66'
70'
🔁Domingos José Gabriel Bandeiraout: João Goulart
🔁Miguel Nogueiraout: Oumar Camara
70'
🔁Ahmed Sidibéout: Óscar Rivas
71'
72'
João Pedro
Balieiro Thiago
86'
🔁Lohann Doucetout: Patrick Ouotro
87'
🔁Fábio Samuel Amorim Silvaout: Gonçalo Nogueira
87'

Match stats — Vitória SC vs Casa Pia

74%Possession26%
29Shots7
8On target3
17Corners4

Line-ups

Vitória SC 4-2-3-1
  • 48O. ZychG
  • 23T. StrataD
  • 28Thiago BalieiroD
  • 5A. SidibéD
  • 13João MendesD
  • 16BeniM
  • 44L. DoucetM
  • 17Miguel NogueiraM
  • 20SamuM
  • 11GustavoM
  • 24A. NdoyeF
Substitutes
  • 56S. VerdiM
  • 7O. CamaraF
  • 22J. CastilloG
  • 9A. JakupovicF
  • 82F. DiasD
  • 6M. MitrovićM
  • 19V. AnderssonM
  • 29V. OuotroF
  • 4Óscar RivasD
Coach: Tiago Margarido
Casa Pia 4-2-3-1
  • 31André GomesG
  • 18GeraldesD
  • 3KalyD
  • 43David SousaD
  • 75Pedro RosasD
  • 16SilviM
  • 80L. OforiM
  • 19K. PrietoM
  • 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
  • 77B. PauwelsM
  • 20A. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 10RochinhaF
  • 59Abdu DafeM
  • 90CassianoF
  • 8Gabi PereiraM
  • 4João GoulartD
  • 95Ivan MandićG
  • 17E. MaurinF
  • 9Henrique AraújoF
  • 24S. PérezM
Coach: Filipe Coelho

Form going into Vitória SC vs Casa Pia

Vitória SC

  • L0-1away to SC Braga31 August 2026
  • W1-0Nacional23 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Sporting CP14 August 2026

Casa Pia

  • L0-1Moreirense30 August 2026
  • L0-2away to GIL Vicente24 August 2026
  • L0-7Benfica17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Vitória SC611447-34
18Casa Pia6015115-141

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vitória SC vs Casa Pia

  • 6 September 2026Vitória SC 0–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 11 May 2026Vitória SC 0–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 28 December 2025Casa Pia 0–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 1 March 2025Vitória SC 1–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 28 September 2024Casa Pia 1–1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 24 February 2024Vitória SC 0–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.