14 September 2026, 17:45 UTC

Rio Ave vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction & result

Vila do Conde
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Rio Ave 3-3 Estrela.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Rio Ave, 28% draw, 40% Estrela — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Estrela at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rio Ave4%Draw91%Estrela5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽Ianis Stoicaassist: Leandro Antonetti
26'
Max Scholze
Francisco Petrasso
44'
⚽Francisco Petrassoassist: Diogo Bezerra
45+3'
53'
⚽Abraham Marcusassist: Max Scholze
🔁Sebastian Clemensenout: Roland Galcik
54'
⚽Roland Galcikassist: Diogo Bezerra
56'
58'
Eddy Doué
61'
⚽Abraham Marcusassist: Ianis Stoica
🔁Miguel Patricíoout: Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro
63'
63'
🔁Eddy Douéout: Joan Jordan
🔁João Tomé Baptistaout: Nelson Abbey
68'
🔁Tamas Nikitscherout: Malik Sellouki
68'
🔁Pedro Amaralout: Marios Vrushai
68'
71'
🔁Max Scholzeout: Kevin Hoog Jansson
72'
🔁Santiago Serraout: Jefferson Encada
76'
Stefan Lekovic
⚽Jalen Blesa (pen)
78'
84'
🔁Abraham Marcusout: Beni Souza
84'
🔁Ianis Stoicaout: Alisson Souza
Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro
90+1'

Match stats — Rio Ave vs Estrela

38%Possession62%
11Shots20
6On target6
4Corners5

Line-ups

Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 20João ToméD
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 3S. GarciaD
  • 24Pedro AmaralD
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 5A. NtoiM
  • 80S. ClemmensenM
  • 79M. PatricioM
  • 7Diogo BezerraM
  • 11J. BlesaF
Substitutes
  • 30R. GalčíkF
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 6N. AbbeyD
  • 54G. LiavasM
  • 19M. SelloukiM
  • 21R. ŠilerF
  • 77D. ŠpikićF
  • 9Tamble MonteiroF
  • 32Vitor HugoG
Coach: S. Silaidopoulos
Estrela 4-2-3-1
  • 24Léo LinckG
  • 21M. ScholzeD
  • 30Patrick LuanD
  • 5S. LekovićD
  • 55Rafa SoaresD
  • 78Santiago SerraM
  • 39Eddy DoueM
  • 99A. MarcusM
  • 14L. ZvonarekM
  • 10I. StoicaM
  • 37L. AntonettiF
Substitutes
  • 4Bernardo SchappoD
  • 17Jefferson EncadaD
  • 6K. Höög JanssonM
  • 19Joan JordánM
  • 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
  • 49R. MutebaF
  • 71E. Pedro VangaM
  • 51Diogo PintoG
  • 8RobinhoM
Coach: Pepa

Form going into Rio Ave vs Estrela

Rio Ave

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Santa Clara6 September 2026
  • L0-4Sporting CP28 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Estoril22 August 2026
  • L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026
  • L0-1away to GIL Vicente9 August 2026

Estrela

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1SC Braga10 September 2026
  • D2-2Famalicao5 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Nacional30 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Alverca15 August 2026
  • D2-2Sporting CP8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Rio Ave failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rio Ave failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rio Ave conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Estrela went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Estrela scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Estrela conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Rio Ave11218924-157
12Estrela112451722-510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs Estrela

  • 15 March 2026Rio Ave 2–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 25 October 2025Estrela 1–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 5 May 2025Rio Ave 2–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • 23 December 2024Estrela 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 14 April 2024Estrela 2–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

The full Rio Ave vs Estrela record →

Leading scorers: Rio Ave and Estrela

Rio Ave

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Estrela

GoalsAssists

  • L. Antonetti51
  • I. Stoica42
  • A. Marcus41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rio Ave and Estrela drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Estrela at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ianis Stoica 21' for Estrela, Francisco Petrasso 45+3' for Rio Ave, Abraham Marcus 53' for Estrela, Roland Galcik 56' for Rio Ave, Abraham Marcus 61' for Estrela, Jalen Blesa (penalty) 78' for Rio Ave.

How the call on Rio Ave v Estrela has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 32% / 28% / 40%: the biggest move is Rio Ave's chance of winning, down 11 points.

  1. Rio Ave win32%▼ −11
  2. Draw28%▲ +2
  3. Estrela win40%▲ +9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.