31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park Championship prediction & result

Somerset Park, Ayr
Referee: K. Clancy
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Ayr Utd 3-2 Queen's Park.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Ayr Utd, 26% draw, 21% Queen's Park — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ayr Utd at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ayr Utd5%Draw92%Queen's Park3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Taylorassist: K. Holt
26'
S. McMann
35'
50'
L. Stewart
57'
⚽A. Connolly
63'
🔁N. Todorovout: C. Smith
64'
🔁L. Stewartout: Z. Lawson
⚽M. Rusassist: S. McMann
67'
🔁J. Landersout: J. Murphy
70'
🔁M. Rusout: K. Shanks
70'
🔁R. Taylorout: T. Hatton
70'
J. Murphy
72'
81'
🔁A. McCallionout: T. McDonnell
83'
⚽A. Connollyassist: C. Smith
🔁B. Summersout: O. Stirton
87'
🔁E. Walkerout: O. Whyte
88'
⚽L. McBeth
90+3'
90+5'
A. Connolly
K. Holt
90+6'

Line-ups

Ayr Utd
  • 1H. Stone
  • 32D. Watret
  • 20L. McBeth
  • 5K. Holt
  • 33S. McMann
  • 23M. Rus
  • 6R. Lyon
  • 16B. Summers
  • 11R. Taylor
  • 9J. Landers
  • 21E. Walker
Substitutes
  • 38L. Russell
  • 2N. McAllister
  • 3L. Dick
  • 7O. Stirton
  • 10K. Shanks
  • 12O. Whyte
  • 15J. Murphy
  • 17T. Hatton
  • 34J. Douglas
Coach: Gary Naysmith
Queen's Park
  • 1D. Mitchell
  • 12C. Pignatiello
  • 5R. Lamie
  • 2Z. Mauchin
  • 21R. McLean
  • 24A. McCallion
  • 8S. Martin
  • 22M. Shiels
  • 11A. Connolly
  • 14L. Stewart
  • 77N. Todorov
Substitutes
  • 31M. Sliwinski
  • 7L. Longridge
  • 17T. McDonnell
  • 18C. Goldie
  • 19D. Edzii
  • 20K. Rodger
  • 25Z. Lawson
  • 26B. Brannan
  • 27C. Smith
Coach: Sean Crighton

Form going into Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park

Ayr Utd

Championship

  • L0-1Partick16 October 2026
  • D1-1Dunfermline10 October 2026

Queen's Park

Championship

  • L0-1Dunfermline24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Morton17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Ayr Utd145361719-218
10Queen's Park152112825-177

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park

  • 18 September 2026Queen's Park 0–2 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 14 March 2026Queen's Park 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 10 March 2026Ayr Utd 1–2 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 25 October 2025Queen's Park 0–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 30 August 2025Ayr Utd 1–1 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 26 April 2025Ayr Utd 2–2 Queen's ParkChampionship

The result against the call

Ayr Utd beat Queen's Park 3–2. The model had made a win for Ayr Utd its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: R. Taylor 26' for Ayr Utd, A. Connolly 57' for Queen's Park, M. Rus 67' for Ayr Utd, A. Connolly 83' for Queen's Park, L. McBeth 90+3' for Ayr Utd.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ayr Utd a 16.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 12.1% after a win, 19.7% after a draw, 22.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.1%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

For Queen's Park the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 79.6% going in: 70.8% after a win, 79.5% after a draw, 83.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 83.6%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ayr Utd v Queen's Park has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Ayr Utd's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Ayr Utd win53%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Queen's Park win21%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.