Arbroath vs Raith Rovers Championship prediction & result
Final score: Arbroath 0-4 Raith Rovers.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Arbroath, 28% draw, 42% Raith Rovers — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Raith Rovers at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1A. McAdams
- 12S. Stewart
- 5T. O'Brien
- 22C. Dewar
- 4B. Paterson
- 20S. Constable
- 8R. Flynn
- 25J. MacIntyre
- 17D. Reid
- 11R. Dow
- 10G. Reilly
- 21J. Pettigrew
- 3C. Hamilton
- 7D. Gold
- 9A. Winter
- 16C. Watson
- 26S. Mackie
- 1J. Rae
- 22R. Millen
- 6J. Baird
- 4P. Hanlon
- 16L. Stevenson
- 20S. Brown
- 14C. Adamson
- 18P. McMullan
- 25K. Montagu
- 15S. Tiffoney
- 9G. Oakley
- 13L. Armstrong
- 2J. Rowe
- 5C. Fordyce
- 7A. Lyall
- 8K. Turner
- 19A. Dowds
Form going into Arbroath vs Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Championship
- L0-1away to Livingston24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inverness CT17 October 2026
- L1-2Morton10 October 2026
Raith Rovers
Championship
- L0-2Inverness CT24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Stenhousemuir17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Arbroath | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 14 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arbroath vs Raith Rovers
- 12 September 2026Raith Rovers 4–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 18 April 2026Arbroath 2–1 Raith RoversChampionship
- 10 January 2026Raith Rovers 2–3 ArbroathChampionship
- 22 November 2025Arbroath 0–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 27 September 2025Raith Rovers 3–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 3 May 2024Raith Rovers 5–0 ArbroathChampionship
The result against the call
Raith Rovers won 4–0 at Arbroath. The model had made a win for Raith Rovers its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: G. Oakley 1' for Raith Rovers, S. Tiffoney 3' for Raith Rovers, G. Oakley 34' for Raith Rovers, G. Oakley 78' for Raith Rovers.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arbroath a 33.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 26.5% after a win, 34.3% after a draw, 36.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.9%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
For Raith Rovers the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 63.7% going in: 69.6% after a win, 61.3% after a draw, 57.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.6%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.