St Mirren vs Hibernian Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Mirren 1-1 Hibernian.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% St Mirren, 29% draw, 37% Hibernian — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hibernian at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Mirren vs Hibernian
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. ChapmanG
- 22M. FraserD
- 13A. GogićD
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 47C. RamsayM
- 8R. CarrM
- 88K. PhillipsM
- 3D. JohnM
- 16L. ThomasF
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 23C. MochrieF
- 48P. NsioM
- 4L. DonnellyM
- 6Louis JacksonD
- 37C. McEvoyM
- 10SamuM
- 2J. RichardsonD
- 35Grant TamoseviciusG
- 30F. TaylorM
- 20J. YoungF
- 1R. SallingerG
- 25F. PasslackD
- 6J. KerrD
- 5M. IvezićD
- 3A. MayorD
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 11J. NewellM
- 17J. McGrathM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 19N. CaddenM
- 7O. EldingF
- 34Z. BruceM
- 4G. HanleyD
- 15J. IredaleD
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 39R. MatondoM
- 13J. SmithG
- 12Alex WilliamsD
- 22A. ŠutoF
Form going into St Mirren vs Hibernian
St Mirren
Premiership
- W2-1Dundee24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Aberdeen17 October 2026
Hibernian
Premiership
- L1-2Celtic25 October 2026
- L1-2Falkirk17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 14 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Hibernian
- 14 February 2026Hibernian 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 8 November 2025St Mirren 0–3 HibernianPremiership
- 31 August 2025Hibernian 1–1 St MirrenPremiership
- 14 May 2025St Mirren 2–2 HibernianPremiership
- 16 February 2025St Mirren 0–0 HibernianPremiership
- 9 November 2024Hibernian 1–2 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: St Mirren and Hibernian
St Mirren
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- C. Wright31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Mirren and Hibernian drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Hibernian at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Marko Ivezic 78' for Hibernian, Jason Kerr (own goal) 83' for St Mirren. On expected goals it finished 1.80–1.42.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave St Mirren these chances to finish in the bottom three: 44.5% after a win, 54.7% after a draw, 62.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 54.7%.
For Hibernian the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 41.1% going in: 32.0% after a win, 44.2% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.2%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on St Mirren v Hibernian has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 29% / 37%: the biggest move is St Mirren's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- St Mirren win34%▲ +3
- Draw29%=
- Hibernian win37%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.