5 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Nice vs Le Mans Ligue 1 prediction & result

Allianz Riviera, Nice
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Nice 1-1 Le Mans.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Nice, 29% draw, 31% Le Mans — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nice at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nice4%Draw93%Le Mans3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Adil Bourabaaassist: Jean Vercruysse
⚽Sepe Elye Wahiassist: Sofiane Diop
44'
58'
Alexandre Lauray
61'
🔁Raul Torrente Navarroout: Samuel Yohou
61'
🔁Jean Vercruysseout: Antoine Rabillard
61'
🔁Dame Gueyeout: Habib Diallo
🔁Nathan Ngoumouout: Gauthier Hein
65'
🔁Sofiane Diopout: Mohamed Amoura
65'
70'
🔁Adil Bourabaaout: Bilal Brahimi
🔁Axel Witselout: Antoine Mendy
73'
🔁Niels Nkounkouout: Ali Abdi
73'
Youssouf Ndayishimiye
75'
78'
🔁Lucas Calodatout: Yasser Larouci
82'
Noa Boissé
Sepe Elye Wahi
84'
🔁Jonathan Claussout: Aboulaye Camara
85'

Match stats — Nice vs Le Mans

59%Possession41%
8Shots8
2On target3
5Corners2

Line-ups

Nice 3-4-2-1
  • 23Y. DioufG
  • 5Mohamed AbdelmonemD
  • 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
  • 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
  • 92J. ClaussM
  • 39D. CoulibalyM
  • 28A. WitselM
  • 27N. NkounkouM
  • 29N. NgoumouM
  • 10S. DiopM
  • 11E. WahiF
Substitutes
  • 9M. AmouraF
  • 77T. BoulhendiG
  • 38A. CamaraM
  • 2A. AbdiD
  • 7G. HeinM
  • 21I. JanssonF
  • 33A. MendyD
  • 41D. MoranaF
  • 87E. PereiraM
Coach: O. Pantaloni
Le Mans 3-1-4-2
  • 1E. HatfoutG
  • 15N. BoisséD
  • 16Raúl TorrenteD
  • 5H. VoyerD
  • 8A. LaurayM
  • 26R. BambaM
  • 11A. BourabaaM
  • 10J. VercruysseM
  • 22L. CalodatM
  • 14L. MafoutaF
  • 25D. GuèyeF
Substitutes
  • 23D. TraoréM
  • 9A. RabillardF
  • 76Y. LarouciD
  • 13H. DialloF
  • 55A. DelbecqueG
  • 18L. BuadésD
  • 29L. BretelleM
  • 7B. BrahimiF
  • 17S. YohouD
Coach: P. Videira

Form going into Nice vs Le Mans

Nice

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Paris FC30 August 2026
  • D0-0Lorient22 August 2026

Le Mans

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
  • D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Nice105231512+317
15Le Mans101541219-78

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nice vs Le Mans

  • 30 October 2019Le Mans 3–2 NiceCoupe de la Ligue

Leading scorers: Nice and Le Mans

Nice

GoalsAssists

  • E. Wahi62

Le Mans

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mafouta41
  • A. Bourabaa32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nice and Le Mans drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Nice at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Adil Bourabaa 13' for Le Mans, Sepe Elye Wahi 44' for Nice.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.