5 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Nice vs Le Mans Ligue 1 prediction & result

Allianz Riviera, Nice
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Nice 1-1 Le Mans.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Nice, 29% draw, 31% Le Mans — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nice at 40% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nice4%Draw93%Le Mans3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Adil Bourabaaassist: Jean Vercruysse
⚽Sepe Elye Wahiassist: Sofiane Diop
44'
58'
Alexandre Lauray
61'
🔁Raul Torrente Navarroout: Samuel Yohou
61'
🔁Jean Vercruysseout: Antoine Rabillard
61'
🔁Dame Gueyeout: Habib Diallo
🔁Nathan Ngoumouout: Gauthier Hein
65'
🔁Sofiane Diopout: Mohamed Amoura
65'
70'
🔁Adil Bourabaaout: Bilal Brahimi
🔁Axel Witselout: Antoine Mendy
73'
🔁Niels Nkounkouout: Ali Abdi
73'
Youssouf Ndayishimiye
75'
78'
🔁Lucas Calodatout: Yasser Larouci
82'
Noa Boissé
Sepe Elye Wahi
84'
🔁Jonathan Claussout: Aboulaye Camara
85'

Match stats — Nice vs Le Mans

59%Possession41%
8Shots8
2On target3
5Corners2

Line-ups

Nice 3-4-2-1
  • 23Y. DioufG
  • 5Mohamed AbdelmonemD
  • 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
  • 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
  • 92J. ClaussM
  • 39D. CoulibalyM
  • 28A. WitselM
  • 27N. NkounkouM
  • 29N. NgoumouM
  • 10S. DiopM
  • 11E. WahiF
Substitutes
  • 9M. AmouraF
  • 77T. BoulhendiG
  • 38A. CamaraM
  • 2A. AbdiD
  • 7G. HeinM
  • 21I. JanssonF
  • 33A. MendyD
  • 41D. MoranaF
  • 87E. PereiraM
Coach: O. Pantaloni
Le Mans 3-1-4-2
  • 1E. HatfoutG
  • 15N. BoisséD
  • 16Raúl TorrenteD
  • 5H. VoyerD
  • 8A. LaurayM
  • 26R. BambaM
  • 11A. BourabaaM
  • 10J. VercruysseM
  • 22L. CalodatM
  • 14L. MafoutaF
  • 25D. GuèyeF
Substitutes
  • 23D. TraoréM
  • 9A. RabillardF
  • 76Y. LarouciD
  • 13H. DialloF
  • 55A. DelbecqueG
  • 18L. BuadésD
  • 29L. BretelleM
  • 7B. BrahimiF
  • 17S. YohouD
Coach: P. Videira

Form going into Nice vs Le Mans

Nice

  • L0-3away to Paris FC30 August 2026
  • D0-0Lorient22 August 2026

Le Mans

  • L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
  • D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Nice402215-42
14Le Mans403178-13

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nice vs Le Mans

  • 5 September 2026Nice 1–1 Le MansLigue 1
  • 30 October 2019Le Mans 3–2 NiceCoupe de la Ligue

Leading scorers: Nice and Le Mans

Nice

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Le Mans

  • L. Mafouta3 goals1 assists
  • A. Bourabaa2 goals2 assists
  • L. Calodat1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.